Senior partners can gain space in Ambev

The proposed merger of Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) and SABMiller can have two negative effects for Ambev: a change in your stock frame, with increased participation of partners, controllers and the rise in its level of indebtedness. The prospect for the future of Ambev had negative impact on the company's shares, which closed the trading session yesterday on the BM & FFBovespa in fall of 5.50%, to R $ 18,70.
The senior analyst Morningstar analysis House, Philip Gorham, believes that the merger opens opportunity for AB InBev's controllers-Jorge Paulo Lemann, Marcel Telles and Carlos Alberto Sicupira, 3 g Capital-extend the stake in Ambev. " It is very likely that the AB InBev deal the Latin American operations of SABMiller to acquire a larger stake in Ambev, "said Gorham. In other words, AB InBev could include SABMiller's operations in Colombia and other countries within the framework of Ambev in Exchange for a larger stake in the Brazilian subsidiary, currently of 61.9%.
Trevor Stirling, senior analyst at Bernstein Research, also considers possible a change in the shareholders of Ambev, reflecting the merger of the companies. Another option would be the AB InBev resell for Ambev acquired assets of SABMiller, no change in the framework of the Brazilian subsidiary. "It could enhance the Ambev, but would involve loss of value for the controllers of AB InBev, since almost 40% appreciation would have to be shared with minority shareholders of Brazilian", says Stirling.
The analyst also believes that the sale of SABMiller in Latin America for Ambev to a high price could depress the share price of Ambev. He noted that, in the formation of InBev, when Ambev absorbed Canadian Labat, the share price of Ambev had fall initially, but later recovery, presented as the operation recorded improvement in profit margins.
Credit Suisse maintains prediction that incorporation of SABMiller in Latin America by Ambev raises the level of net indebtedness of Brazilian to 3.2 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda). Last year, Ambev recorded an operating free cash flow of $ 7,71 billion. The Union of business in Latin America also causes, immediately, a reduction in the level of profitability of Ambev. In Latin America, SABMiller operates with an Ebitda margin of 33%, while the margin of Ambev is 41.6%.
Jonny Forsyth, an analyst at consulting firm Mintel, believes that the presence of SABMiller in Latin American countries like Peru, Colombia and Ecuador complements the domain that the AB InBev owns in Brazil and in Argentina. "This complementarity will leave the new group with plenty of scope for efficiency gains in the region," said the analyst.
In the fiscal year ended March 31, 2015, Latin America was the main market for SABMiller, having been responsible for generating $ 2,22 billion of Ebitda, the equivalent of 35% of the global Ebitda of the company. Ambev closed the period with adjusted Ebitda of R $ 19.3 billion (US $ 5.1 billion). The analyst considered possible for Ambev raise the Ebitda margin of the SABMiller operation in Latin America to levels that the Brazilian company reaches today.
Officially, the AB InBev has not yet reported as a aims to include Ambev in the melting process. In September, the company reported that the Brazilian is not involved directly in the merger. The announcement of the offer made by SABMiller yesterday mentioned that can make use of subsidiaries to consolidate the business. The junction of business would give Ambev 61% Latin America beer market, with annual sales of 32 billion liters of beer. Heineken is the second in the region, with 13% of the market, according to Euromonitor International.