Consumer goods are more expensive, but lose the inflation

Production and sales of final consumption goods such as drinks, foods, clothes, shoes and cars come falling, but prices show opposite trajectory. At first glance, this doesn't make sense, especially when the purchasing power of consumers is shrinking.
A closer look, however, realizes that the prices of most of these products are being adjusted below inflation.
With the exception of food. The food consumed away from home builds up 10.21% prices high, in 12 months to September. And food purchased in supermarkets, to eat at home, up almost 10%-above the 9.5% inflation, measured by the IPCA, the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE). The prices of beverages, automobiles, clothing and shoes go up, but everyone loses in inflation (see charts). Household cleaning products and personal hygiene are also more expensive, with a high of just over 7%, but they can't beat the IPCA.
And there are cases of indentation of prices in absolute terms-TV sets and sound show 1.2% drop in 12 months to September. Cell phones and tablets fall further: 5.3%.
Renato da Fonseca, Chief Economist of the National Confederation of industry (CNI) makes a hard reading, optimistic thing in the economic situation and that helps you understand the strategy of most companies.
"First, the industry gave collective vacations. But the demand didn't come ". After that, manufacturers start to close part of the production and firing because inventories remain high. "And that's exactly what's happening," says Fonseca.
The strategy employed by most of the consumer goods sector end isn't reduce prices to encourage consumers to spend more. The industry has cut production and laid off staff, waiting for better days.
The Exchange has even helped some companies to start or return to export, but the volume sold out there doesn't make up for the lost revenue in the domestic market.
The use of installed capacity in the industry, measured by the CNI, hit 77.9% in August to the lowest level since January 2003, when this indicator began to be constructed. The number of hours worked falls 9.2% from January to August this year, compared to the same period last year.
From the consumer side, what you see is the shrinking purchasing power. The average income of the worker accumulates a fall of 3.5% in the last 12 months, until July. But if we take December last year as a base, the spill is much larger, 22.8%.
"The purchasing power lost to inflation. So the feeling is that everything is expensive, "says Fonseca, the CNI.
He predicts a fall in income even more in the coming months because there will be more layoffs. "The prospects are bad for this semester," says Fonseca.
Data released on Friday by the IBGE, show that employment in all sectors of the industry shrank in August compared to August last year. In the clothing industry, for example, the fall is 5.7%. And in machinery and electronic devices and communication, 14.4%.
Aloisio Campelo, Economist at FGV/Rio, says that the very weak demand should continue. As Fonseca, he notes that the makers of consumer goods have not even managed to readjust prices above inflation. "The durable goods, what we've seen is that they lose to inflation," says Cameron.
Heron do Carmo, an economist of the FEA/USP, which studies the behavior of hundreds of items that make up the IPCA, notes that "families are stored", and will not, in a crisis like this, keep buying as in recent years, greater Bonanza:. "The family was changing car every three years, but that doesn't happen now. The wardrobe, one for each Member of the family, is also full of clothes. And shoes, the Brazilians got used to having many pairs. Now, they're going to take a break ".
Study that Carmo do 500 of items that make up the IPCA shows that this year the "core" of the index-disregards non-industrialized goods, utilities and taxes (as PROPERTY)-7.32% over the last 12 months, until September. That means products that depend on the market, the consumer's pocket, are closer to the ceiling target for inflation of 6.5%, than the IPCA full, which shows no signs of cooling.