There is a growing volume of retail stock

The weak trade performance between January and March left a bad legacy for the 2nd quarter: high stocks of items more expensive and usually financed, like electronics, furniture, computers and mobile phones. As mother's day sales were weak, the prospect is that the stranding in the way of retail products until mid-year and affects the industry's dynamism, which closed March with high stocks in most sectors.
The big bet of traders to reverse this situation is the World Cup, but the effect of the event is restricted. The cup can boost sales of TVs, but must limit the other items. That's because June will have a smaller number of working days because of the games.
The mismatch between the pace of retail sales and inventory buildup is crisp in a study done by the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC) at the request of the State, based on surveys of trade and industry of IBGE and imports of Funcex. Between January and March, the volume of sales of restricted trade grew 4.5 percent compared to the first quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, stocks in stores rose 5.5%. The restricted trade does not include cars and building materials.
According to the Economist of CNC responsible for study, Fabio Bentes, that 1 percentage point difference between high rate of inventory and sales has been higher in other periods, but this year the situation is worse. In 2010 and 2012, stocks grew 1.6 percentage point 1.2 and above sales, respectively. "The difference is that these two years were the best for retail and sales trajectory was ascendant. In 2014, the prospect is of slowing sales in the face of rising credit, reducing financing term and the lowest rate of expansion of the economy, "he explains.
Breath. The latest results of retail sales restricted established by IBGE attested to the loss of breath: in 12 months until March the industry accumulates high of 4.5%, and by February, the advance had been 5%. When it evaluates the performance of the first quarter against the last of 2013, discounted the typical behavior of the period, the growth was only 0.3%.
"The data indicates that there will be a 2nd quarter with growth rate lower than Q1: mother's day was weak and June will have many holidays because of the World Cup," predicts the Serasa Experian, Economist Luiz Rabi. He notes that, since the second half of 2013, retailers Overstock coexists with, selling fewer items than bought.
The disconnect between stocks and sales was printed last month in the merchants ' dissatisfaction in relation to this item in the index of Entrepreneur confidence of Commerce of CNC. In April, the level of stocks in relation to sales hit the worst marks (92.6 points) since October 2011 (91.8 points).
The study of CNC shows that the biggest gap between sales and stocks occurs in computer and communication segment, followed by furniture, appliances and clothing. Daniela Martins, an investment analyst at Concorde broker, cites as an example, Via retail, owner of Casas Bahia and Ponto Frio, which increased in R $ 492 million stocks in the first quarter of this year because of the World Cup and mother's day. In the clothing sector, the Shops increased by 1% Marisa inventories in the first quarter, reflecting weaker sales direct.