Fuels rise 2.1% in 1st half

Against the grain of the help given to price indices by the repeal of the collective transport increases, another thread that makes up the transport group is pressing more inflation this year. Accumulate high fuels 2.1% in the national consumer price Index (IPCA) between January and June. In the same period in 2012, the variation of the subgroup was negative in 2%.
This movement, however, is not considered inflationary scenario concern factor in 2013, with a view to other important points of relief to prices, as the cut of tariffs of electricity and the cancellation of tariff adjustments.
Weighing from 0.93% in the IPCA, ethanol accumulated fall of 0.6% in the first half, after indentation of 4% from January to June 2012. The gasoline, which was 1.8% drop in the first half of last year and represents almost 4% of the index, rose 2.5% in the same period in 2013. Diesel, whose impact on the IPCA is indirect and outdated and therefore weaker, advanced 8.9% this year according to official inflation, up from 1.2% in equal comparison of 2012.
These last two fuels have prices controlled by Petrobras and were adjusted this year, due to the increased gap between external and internal prices. At the end of January, the fixes in diesel and petrol prices were 5.4% and 6.6%, respectively. In March, the diesel had new readjustment, of 5%. Last year, the Government has zeroed the contribution for intervention in the economic domain (Cide) on fuel to reduce the impact of high consumer fireworks in refineries that was no longer available this year.
Fabio Romão, LCA consulting, estimates that the fuels will contribute with 0.18 percentage point from 5.6% high designed for the IPCA in 2013. In 2012, says, the impact of this set of indicator prices was negative in 0.04 percentage point. According to Ratliff, the strong deflation of ethanol was an important aid for the variation of the two fuels in 2012. Last year, the percentage of anhydrous alcohol in the mixture of gasoline was 20%, high for 25% share in May this year.
The adjustments of petrol and diesel to distributors, in turn, also made a difference in this segment price inflation this year, says the Chief Economist of the LCA. "Last year was the year of municipal elections, which may have delayed new adjustments to 2013. With the bus passes, this happens with more clarity, "says Ratliff. In addition to the electoral issue, he mentions the lag in international prices, which, in the case of diesel, led to two increases in a short time.
According to Adriana Molinari, of Consulting Trends, increased gasoline refineries resulted in 4.1% of this feed item in the IPCA, which occurred last year, when the exemption of Cide consumer the transfer zeroed. In 2013, says Adriana, the transmission of high retail gasoline gave room for the sugar mills were to hike the prices of hydrated alcohol.
"The freezing of gasoline works as artificial barrier to alcohol prices, which may not exceed 70% of litre of fuel. The adjustment of petrol this year allowed an increase of ethanol without affecting both the consumption, "says Arthur Viaro, agribusiness analyst of trends. Another factor, he says, comes from the greater participation of anhydrous alcohol in the mixture of gasoline, which reduces the supply of alcohol.
By the side of the crop, there is no Viaro acceleration vectors for ethanol prices in 2013. At the end of may, the rains have affected the harvest of sugar cane, but the first two weeks of July already showed improvement in production. He points out that the plants have more incentives to produce alcohol this year, due to the attractive little sugar prices in the international market and also to discharge recovery of PIS and Cofins on biofuel.
Even with the worst behavior in fuel price indices, Adriana points out that the items delivered should rise only 0.7% in 2013, after 3.6% advance in 2012, on the basis of MP 579, which reduced the prices of electricity, and the reversal of adjustments of public transport.