Nomura reviews high Gdp of 2.5% to 1.6%

The broker Nomura Securities on Tuesday revised its expectation of growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to 1.6% compared with the 2.5 percent projected earlier.

For 2014, the broker also lowered the projection of 2.3% to 1.8%. The press release stating the reduction in the projections was signed by Director of emerging market research for Nomura in New York, Tony Volpon, and released on Tuesday by the Broadcast, State Agency news service.
The institution pointed to reduced expectation of increased investment and consumption as the main reasons for revising his estimate this year.
"In the case of investments, we were expecting a robust increase of 9% in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the previous year, and now we see if reducing to a high of 3.5% in the period and hence a negative variation of 0.5% in the first quarter of 2014.
For consumption, we see growth falling to 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2013, before our previous forecast of 1%, "says the note from broker.
On the review of the rate of growth of 2014, the Nomura States that is partially influenced by negative effects on reducing Chinese growth.
"What we hope is that (the Chinese growth reduction) reduce the commodity price in about 20% of current levels, something that negatively affects the net exports and investment," says the note.
Unemployment
Nomura Also designs increase in unemployment in the country, passing from the current 5.4% to 7.3% at the end of the year of 2014.
According to brokerage, high unemployment will be pulled by low growth and the cooling of the service sector. "Something that has already been seen in Caged information (General Register of employees)," says the note.
High in unemployment should help inflation finally 2014 around 5.2%, compared to the 5.4 percent expected earlier. For 2013, the expectation of Nomura is that inflation close to 5.8%, up from the 5.7% referred to earlier.
The Japanese brokerage also expects the real exchange rate against the dollar to r $ 2,20 fell $ 2 designed earlier.
Nomura said in a statement that the interest rate (Selic) should terminate 2014 around 11%.