Exports surprised auto makers

Along with the more favourable situation on the Exchange, the high demand in traditional consumer markets of the Brazilian automobile industry opened space for an unexpected reaction vehicle exports this year. In the first half of the year, shipments rose by 18% and the Anfavea, an organization that represents automakers in Brazil, has already said it will reverse, possibly next month, the prediction that, for now, points to a decline of 4.6% of foreign sales in 2013.
When he announced this expectation, in December, the industry took account of the European recession to unpredictable developments-and the reduction of trade flows with Argentina. Also looked at the old problems of competitiveness of the country, with its infrastructure deficiencies, climbing on the cost of labor, heavy burden of taxes and a bad exchange rate for exporting companies at the time.
From then on, as we all know, little has changed. The European market is in crisis, while Brazil remains uncompetitive on the international stage. However, the appreciation of the dollar since January helped ease those difficulties and gave greater firepower to the Brazilian cars compete abroad. At the same time, Brazil and Argentina-despite the restrictions placed by the Government of Cristina Kirchner to imported products-seem to have resolved, at least momentarily, the commercial clash last year, resulted in thousands of cars, from both parties, stopped in ports waiting for entry into the country.
The Brazilian trade balance numbers, collected between January and may, show an increase of almost 13% in exports of vehicles to Argentina, compared to the same period in 2012. For Mexico, another important target, the high was 12%. Are numbers that reflect the expansion in car consumption in these two markets, in which trade agreements allow for the acquisition of vehicles produced in Brazil without import tax. In Mexico-responsible for 10% of all that is shipped by Brazilian automakers-purchases of vehicles evolve at a rate of 9%. In Argentina, fate of three out of four cars exported in Brazil, the growth in demand is even greater, from 16%.
' This export performance is linked to the economic situation in Argentina. The Argentines want to invest more in vehicles at that time and not postpone purchases, since inflation rates are high in the country ', says Stephan Keese, a partner at Roland Berger.
On the other hand, the strength of the Brazilian market also has been instrumental to the recovery of the Argentine auto industry, account for 87% of vehicles exported by the neighbouring country. By dependency that a country has the other in foreign trade, the automakers of the two sides have celebrated the fact that the revision of the automotive agreement between the countries be negotiated without interruption in the flow.
Except February, exports of vehicles come in high since the beginning of the year, reaching a peak of 55 thousand units in April, the largest amount in 17 months. There are no figures on the performance of each automaker this year. However, the results of 2012, compiled in directory of Anfavea, show that not always the situation of domestic brands repeats in exports. Renault, for example, is the fifth in the ranking of plates issued in Brazil, but occupies the third position, behind only Volkswagen and General Motors, among the largest exporters. Already the Fiat, the market leader, is only the fifth placed in the list of exports.
Brazilian vehicle sales to rise 13% in Argentina until May. For the Mexico high is 12%
Although far from seven years ago, when Brazil exported almost 900 thousand vehicles (including cars removed), this year's performance is at least allowing for recoupment of 2012, period in which exports fell 20%. In addition to the manufacturers of Brazilian vehicles, some analysts began to revise their projections for exports after the results of the first half. Rodrigo Nishida, LCA, says that working with high bias to the estimates. In view of the positive effect of the exchange rate, the consultancy put under review the expectation of growth near 5% in shipments of automobiles and light commercial, that segment in the first six months of the year showed high of almost 20% in exports. ' However, it is difficult to know at what time the Argentina will adjust that compromise our exports ', may Nishida.
The high dollar will help Brazilian automakers put their products abroad, in addition to compensate, at least partially, the structural problems that weigh on the competitiveness of Brazil. As recently said Cristiano Rattazzi, President of Adefa, entity that represents the Argentine auto industry, cars are cheaper in dollars. However, when looking at long-term goals and the goals set out by the automakers to get to 1 million vehicles per year-twice the current level, it should be noted that there is still a challenging path to be traversed.
In announcing the recovery of volumes exported in the first half of the year, Luiz Moan, President of Anfavea, was the first to point out that the performance was more for the resumption of the buyers markets improves the competitiveness of Brazilian cars on the international market. At the time, the authority draws up a series of proposals to stimulate exports. After incentives charged last week the hybrid and electric vehicles, this should be the next election being discussed by Anfavea.
The Brazil still imports more than exports-vehicles in the first half, the difference in favour of imported was of 100 thousand units. This, added to the growing Chinese and Korean Auto input, generated, until may, a deficit of $ 5.3 billion in commercial transactions of the Community industry.
It is not known the content of that orders will be placed by the automakers to the Government, but by the statements of Directors of Anfavea on the subject, the starting point should be the Elimination of exports. Moan has said that the proposals will include solutions of short, medium and long term, so that Brazil will be an export platform to major automakers in the world.
But, even if the requests are met and the country will have compatible to viability of large exporting countries-without relying on only the dollar exchange rate, the automakers will also need to do their part, approaching the levels of efficiency, quality and safety of vehicles produced here to demanding markets. ' What we export are by-products. What makes the demand for our cars go up is the increased competitiveness in price [in dollars) of the exported product ', says an expert, asking not to be identified.