Exchange extends price lag gasoline and diesel

6/14/13-the devaluation of Real puts pressure on fuel prices in Brazil and must have strong impact on Petrobras's finances. Calculations made by specialized consultancies at the request of Brazil indicate that the Economic gap in the price of gasoline reaches 28.6%.
In the case of diesel, the difference between the State and the American exchange rate, used as a reference by the Government may reach 15.8%. Analysts differ with respect to the possibility of new adjustments later this year.
The fuel price calculations consider the Gulf of Mexico and the exchange rate. Although point different numbers, the Brazilian Center for infrastructure (CENTER) and consulting Trends detected an increase in the difference between international prices and the sales value by Petrobras in recent weeks because of the devaluation of the real. Using as a reference the closing yesterday, the 28.6% lag calculates Trends in the price of gasoline and 15.8% in the price of diesel.
For the CENTER, that calculated on the basis of quotations of the day June 10, gasoline and diesel sold by Petrobras are 17.6% and 14.5% cheaper than on the international market. Consulting points out that rose 7.8 percentage points since April 30, last month with Exchange closing the $ 2 per dollar. In the case of diesel, the elevation was 8 percentage points. "Petrobras loses with the sale, in Brazil, of a product that buying more expensive abroad," said Adriano Pires, consultant of the CENTER.
In fact, according to their accounts, the liter of gasoline in the region from the Gulf of Mexico cost the equivalent of $ 1,627, or R $ 0.28 above the sale price by Petrobras. The difference in the price of diesel was $ 0.28 per litre. According to data of the national agency of petroleum, Natural gas and biofuels (ANP), Petrobras has been importing, in 2013, a monthly average of almost 500 million liters of petrol and 1 billion litres of diesel.
The difference between international prices and domestic fuel price was the main explanation for the 36% drop in the company's profit in 2012: with the growth of the Brazilian demand, without increasing the National Park of refining, the solution was to search for more products in the international market. At the beginning of the year, with the goal of minimizing losses, the Government authorized adjustments in prices of petrol and diesel, at 6.6% and 5.4%, respectively. In March, the company raised the price of diesel, in 5%.
"Petrobras has had a series of readjustments this year and I find it hard that the Government authorize further increase", comments the BES Securities oil analyst, Oswaldo Telles. "The company will have to hope the retreat". There is great concern about the inflationary impact of fuel-price adjustments to minimize this risk, the Government reduced the tax on gasoline and diesel when he authorized the first year increases.
"The scenario is consistent with new price increase later this year," disagrees with the Trends analyst Walter de Vitto, that even expecting a pullback in the price of American currency to $ 2.10 in late 2013, design adjustments of 7.5% for the two products in September. "The Government should not leave much to the end of the year, to avoid contamination of the election year," argues the expert.
Telles points out that, in addition to the impact on costs of imported fuels, Petrobras should suffer from the impact of the devaluation of the Real in its debt. "The company has a position exposed to very large dollar," he says. In its balance sheet for the first quarter, the company reported that 55% of its debt of R $ 196 billion are tied to the American currency.