Market raises to 0.87% the forecast of GDP growth in 2019

Financial market analysts have again increased the growth forecast of the economy by 2019, according to data published by the Central Bank (BC) on Monday (2). The forecast for inflation fell for the fourth consecutive week. According to report data, known as the Focus report, GDP growth forecast in 2019 increased from 0.80% to 0.87% and inflation increased from 3.65% to 3.59%. The projections are listed in the market newsletter known as the "Focus" report, released on Monday (26) by the Central Bank (BC). The report is a result of a survey made last week with more than 100 financial institutions. For 2020, the report released by the BC maintained the forecast for economic growth by 2.1%. The forecast for 2020 is similar to what the government disclosed in the 2020 budget proposal. In the budget proposal for the next year, released last Friday (30) by the Ministry of Economics, the growth forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) is 2.17%. The inflation forecast for 2020 was maintained at 3.85%. For 2021, the high GDP forecast was maintained at 2.50% and inflation forecast in 3.75%. Interest rate In the last week, financial market analysts maintained Selic's forecast for the end of 2019 at 5% per year. With this, the market indicates expecting more cuts in the basic interest rate at 2019. Currently, Selic is at 6% a year, minimal historical. For the end of 2020, the financial market estimate for Selic is 5.25% per year. Exchange, balance and investments Analysts heard by the Focus report have again increased the projection of the exchange rate to 2019, 2020 and 2021. For the end of 2019, the projection went from R $3.80 per dollar to R $3.85. The forecast of the dollar for the closing of 2020 rose from R $3.81 per dollar to R $3.82. The forecast for 2021 rose from R $3.85 to R $3.88. For the balance of the trade balance (result of total exports minus imports), in 2019, analysts reduced the forecast of surplus from US $52.85 billion to US $52.35 billion. For next year, the estimate of market specialists has gone from US $49 billion to US $48.73 billion. The forecast of the report for the entry of foreign direct investments in Brazil, in 2019, was stable at US $85 billion. For 2020, analysts ' estimates rose from US $84.36 billion to US $84.68 billion.