Trade sales rising 2.3% in 2018 and have 5-year high, says IBGE

Brazilian retail sales have recorded high of 2.3 percent last year, reported on Wednesday (13) the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE). It was the indicator's high in five years. "From 2013, when accumulated high of 4.3%, Commerce did not have such high performance," said Isabella Nunes, Manager of research. "Despite the significant result, both high in a row [2.1% to 2.3% in 2017 and 2018] were not sufficient to offset the losses of 2015 and 2016. The sector is still 7% below the level in which operated in 2014, "said. That is, the accumulated growth of 4.4% over the last two years hasn't regained the fall of 10.3% in 2015 and 2016. Despite the growth in year-to-date, sales lost breath in the second half, according to Isabella, because of the high dollar, uncertainties before the election period and recovery of the Teamsters ' strike. Fall in December in December 2018, national retail trade fell 2.2% compared to November, in series with seasonal adjustment, discounting much of the advance of 3.1 percent registered in the previous month. Compared to December 2017, sales volume grew 0.6%. According to Isabella, the IBGE, it was the worst monthly outcome since January 2016, when the volume of retail sales fell 2.5%. The researcher also highlighted that it was the worst December historical research series, initiated in 2001, in comparison to the immediately preceding month. IBGE researcher considered the strong negative result of December occurred because the basis for comparison. In November, the trade has advanced 3.1%-the highest monthly rate of the entire series of historical research. "This rate of December was driven strongly by the Black Friday specials that made November have a very high result", explained. The most influential setbacks the result of December came from other personal and household articles (-13.1%), furniture and appliances (-5.1%) and textiles, clothing and footwear (-3.7%), threads that had high marked in November (8.3%, 4.2% and 1.7%, respectively) because of the Black Friday. Isabella recalled that December has always been the strongest month for trade on account of the purchases, which bring higher revenues to that of other months, but Black Friday began to change the scenario. "Year after year, the levels of November and December have been closing. This becomes more apparent as we observe trade activities individually. Sales of other household and personal items, furniture and appliances are the fastest growing in November since the beginning of this annual promotion, "said. Expanded trade In retail trade expanded, including the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and construction materials, the decline was 1.7 percent compared to November. Forward to December 2017, sales volume rose 1.8%, at the 20th positive rate then. The YTD was discharged from 5%, positive rate but then 19, showing loss of pace since April 2018, when the expansion was 7%. Performance by segment Three of eight retail activities exerted the greatest impact on retail trade in 2018: hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (3.8%), followed by other personal and household articles (7.6%) and articles pharmacists, doctors, orthopedic, perfumery and cosmetics (5.9%). On the other hand, fuels and lubricants ( -5%) exerted the greater negative impact. In the retail trade expanded, the good performance of 2018 was influenced mainly by the activity of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, with high of 15.1%-the highest rate since 2007, when it grew 22.6%. The segment recorded a rate of one digit only may and December, respectively, of 2.1% and 7.8%. According to the researcher, two factors have a direct relation with high expressive on sale of vehicles: better financing conditions and 30% reduction of taxes on imported cars. "Vehicles begins the year showing double-digit rates. In January had order the Innovate Auto, program that sobretaxava imported vehicles ", pointed out. "It is worth remembering that vehicles is an activity that responds well to any tax reduction," said Isabella. Researcher ressalvou that, although the 11-year high, the segment of vehicles is still a sales level 34.2% below the historic peak, registered in June 2012. Already the construction material segment closed the year of 2018 accumulating 3.5% variance, however, with loss of pace compared to the accumulated until November (3.9%). See below: see the performance of each segment in the year 2018: vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces: 15.1% Other personal and household articles: 7.6% pharmacists, physicians, orthopaedic Articles and Perfumery: 5.9%, Hypermarkets, supermarkets, products food, beverages and tobacco: 3.8% 3.5% Building Material: fabrics, clothing and footwear: 1.7% equipment and stationery, computers and communication: 0.1% furniture and appliances:-1.3% fuels and lubricants: -5% Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery:-14.7% For regions falling November to December in the retail trade was accompanied by 26 of 27 Federation units, with highlight to the Acre (-12.6%). Only the Paraíba (0.4%) had positive variation in volume of sales. In the case of the retail trade expanded, 23 of 27 Federation units showed setback in sales, again to the Acre (-7.9%). On the other hand, Roraima (0.9%), Paraíba (0.7%), Minas Gerais (0.2%) and Paraná (0.1%) registered advances. Prospects with unemployment still high, the brazilian economy has shown a recovery still slow. According to a survey of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), trade confidence retreated in January, with entrepreneurs optimistic about the evolution of sales in the coming months, but still wary of the current situation of the economy. Already consumer confidence advanced to the highest level since February 2014. The brazilian economy has advanced 0.8 percent in the third quarter. For the year 2019, the expectation is of a high of 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest research Focus held by the Central Bank.