40% of the industry closed last year in crisis

After the recession behind us, the gradual recovery of economic activity in 2017 brought hope of better days in the industrial sector. But 2018 was revealed as a succession of buckets of cold water. Four out of 10 segments of the manufacturing industry closed the year in crisis, according to a survey of the Institute for Industrial Development (Iedi) obtained exclusively for the Broadcast, real-time news service of Grupo Estado. Of the 93 industrial subsectors investigated, 37 faced a moderate to massive crisis, i.e. 40% of industries accumulated a fall in production greater than 1% in the year to about 2017. Other 14 segments were stagnant. The survey was done on the basis of the Monthly industry research-Physical Production, determined by the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE). According to 2018, brought greater fragility Iedi to industrial recovery, with a fairly widespread deceleration between segments surveyed. According to Rafael Cagnin, Chief Economist of the Iedi, threads that led the falls (see next) are very attached to the streams of income and the slowdown in the industrial sector as a whole. "Among those with better performance, there are several that had a very low basis of comparison or exporting profile, such as pulp and paper manufacturers, meat products, trucks and buses, tractors and agricultural equipment." At least five of the 37 subsectors in crisis in 2018 belonged to the textile industry. "The years 2015 and 2016 were a disaster. In 2017, grew up. We ended the year on a positive trajectory, and our prognosis for 2018 was a GDP growth around 3 percent, "reminded the President of the Brazilian Association of Textile and Clothing Industry (Abit), Fernando Valente Pimental. According to Pimentel, 2018 would reasonably well until April. In may, the truckers strike began to change the direction of the industry. "That was very frustrating," defined the Teamsters ' strike Pimentel. sparked a disorganization of the brazilian industrial production, reinforced Bernardo Almeida, an analyst at Industry coordination of IBGE. "In addition, election uncertainties have damaged as much as consumption decisions.", listed. The national industry grew by 2.3% in the first half of 2018, compared with the same period of the previous year. In the second half, the less favourable economic climate resulted in a brake on production, there was only slight high 0.1%, according to the data of the IBGE's monthly Industrial Survey. Abdullah remembers that the industry ended the year with advance of 1.1%, but still sustained by the positive performance of the beginning of 2018. "We run the risk of trading a recovery process through a process of water bath, walk sideways," warned Rafael Cagnin, Iedi. "The date for the fourth quarter, the first quarter of 2018 2019 will be difficult, there's an adjustment. It was a very strong brake throughout the entire last year. The year 2019 will depend on much of what the economic indicators will give. Despite the more favourable economic indicators, there is still uncertainty in the domestic setting, "he added. MelhoraAs Outlook for this year, however, are still optimistic. In 2019, the external market should disturb least the industry, while the domestic demand can help more, predicts the Superintendent of public statistics of Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Ibre/FGV), Aloisio Cameron. " Performance should be better than last year over the quarters, but not exuberant, because the Monthly Industrial Survey brings a negative statistical load, "said Cameron. "In the second half, the industry can win a little more pace, depending on the approval of the reforms that are being presented by the Government." The information is from the newspaper O Estado de s. Paulo.