Friday, December 21, 2018

Credit market with free resources will grow from 10% to 12% in 2019

The credit market to free resources should grow between 10% and 12% in 2019. The prospect of consolidation in the sector to heights of resumption, however, is only for 2020. According to the Quarterly inflation Report (RTI) released yesterday by the Central Bank (BC), the prospect of the Monetary Authority to the credit market is an increase of 6% in 2019 compared the observed this year. For individuals, the Central Bank projects a growth of 7%, and, for corporations, a high of 5%, on the same basis of comparison. According to the Chief Economist of the Association of credit, financing and investment (Acrefi) Nicola Tingas, despite the positive expectations for the coming year, there are still "conditions in the dynamics of the economy", to that growth if happen. "The market the possibility of stable interest assimilates in 6.5% in 2019 and inflation controlled, but there is a large idle capacity and a wait for the conduct of policies of the next Government," punctuates the expert. He comments that depend on the consolidation of these expectations, the loans with free resources tends to grow even more. "Free funding already have risen 5.2% in 2017 and already had reached a high of 7.7% until October, consolidating a possible advance between 8% and 9% for this year. Depending on the success of the Government's alignment with the Congress, our estimate is that the market will grow between 10 percent and 12 percent next year, "he says. The latest data from the Central Bank show that in October, the total concessions with free resources reached R $295 billion, an increase of 14.8% compared to the same month of 2017 (R $257 billion). According to the Chief Economist of Mapfre Investments, Luis Afonso Lima credit recovery is still quite limited by the indebtedness of households and caution. The resumption, to him, coming five years after the "digestion process of the crisis, started in 2015", consolidating itself, so only from 2020. " The indebtedness of families still rises and the job market is recovering very gradually, driven mainly by informal jobs, "ponders the Economist, stressing that the consumer option for longer credits as loans, automotive and enshrined also influences the results of the sector. " In addition, the legal entities, we have a long process of deleveraging and even if there is a clearly greater demand of small and medium-sized enterprises, demand is still far lower than the offer. Until banks want to lend, but the companies have not yet resumed the appetite for credit ", complements just File handling, for the experts, it has been responsible for the marginal oscillation observed throughout this year in the spread. Still according to the BC, for example, the total spread reached 18 percentage points (p.p.) in October, a drop of 2.6 percentage points compared with the same month of 2017, but an advance of 0.6 percentage points compared with the value seen in September (17.4 percentage points). To the Central Service Economist of credit protection (SCPC Boa Vista) Flávio Calife, however, the trend is that this reduction does not reflect so much on the interest rates charged on the edge. " Differently than we had in the last two years, we won't see a thing as sharp of interest, "he says. The experts reiterate, however, that in the perspective of macro-and microeconomic reforms approval (such as welfare and the Positive Record, for example), this cost can get to "reduce a little more." The positive agenda of the Central Bank already has brought results and everything indicates that this trend continues. Greater competition and better credit alternatives can influence, Yes, in lower interest for individuals and corporations, "he adds.
DCI - 21/12/2018 News Item translated automatically
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