Intention of household consumption rises 3% in November

A combination of favorable factors-as inflation less pressed, lower cost of credit and signs of improvement in the labour market-led to an increase of 3% in the ICF (intention of household consumption) established by the CNC (National Commerce Confederation for goods, services and tourism) in November, compared with October, to 80.2 points.
Is the highest level for the indicator since July 2015, when I scored 81.8 points. Compared with November last year, the increase was of 7.9%. The improvement took the entity to revise upwards, from 2.8% to 3.7%, the high projection for this year in the volume of retail sales enlarged — which includes the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and construction materials —, compared with last year.
If confirmed, will be the first annual industry sales growth in four years, since 2013 (3.6%). In 2016, the expanded retail sales fell 8.7% compared to previous year, worst result of the series initiated in 2004 by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics) for the segment.
For the CNC, the gradual improvement of economic conditions spurred the recovery of confidence of households. One of the aspects that most contributed to improvement in intention, in this condition, was less inflation pressure. In addition, there were slight indentation of the cost of credit and signs of resumption of wage bill. This in practice released larger share of the budget of families for consumption.
"What this number shows is that the worst is behind us. Low inflation, lower the cost of credit for households led to a resumption in the optimism of the families, "explained Bruno Fernandes, Chief Economist of the entity.
It sorts the results as positive, but comments that the pace of recovery is still slow consumption. The expert notes that, despite signs of improvement in the labour market, the unemployment rate is still very high.
According to the IBGE, the vacancy rate in the third quarter from 12.4% in 2017 was Brazil, 0.6 percentage point lower than the second quarter of 2017 (13.0%). However, until the third quarter, the rate still represented 13.1 million unemployed. For the coach, the fact that you still don't understand robust improvement in the labour market is what has dictated the pace still slow consumption recovery.
Another aspect mentioned by him is the fact that the ICF indicator still position on the landing of 80 points, i.e. in unfavorable zone (the indicator goes up to 200 points). In the analysis of Fernandes, should keep the current Cadence, gradual recovery, the index can reach 100 points again — but only from the second half of next year. In his analysis, the slight signs of recovery of the labour market should help to raise the level of consumer confidence in the coming months, and so boosting the consumption, with retail sales positive reflection, but slowly, he admitted.
In the ICF, the seven topics used for calculation of the indicator, all showed an increase in the passage from October to November. The most prominent was observed in perspective (6%), followed by professional perspective (3.3%), purchase and current consumption level (both with 2.9%), current income (2.7%), durable (2.4%) and for current job (1.3%).
Compared to November last year, the consumer perspective also showed increased more expressive (21.17%), followed by time for durable (17.4%), current consumption level (14.7%), Layaway (10.5%), current income (4.8%) and current job (3%). In this comparison, only one topic presented retreat: the professional perspective (-2.5%).