Capacity utilisation is the smallest since February 2009, says CNI

The Brazilian industry reached last month the lowest percentage of capacity utilisation (UCI) since February 2009, of 78.5%, or 79.7%, if considered seasonally adjusted data. These data are present in the study "Industrial Indicators", released on Tuesday, 31, the National Confederation of industry (CNI). Although it is not possible to point out that there is a downward trend, the CNI Economist Fabio War warns that the scenario for the near future is not encouraging, due to the combination of factors such as low inventories, production and demand weakened.
According to CNI Economist, is not yet possible to estimate how long it will take to be reversed the high frame idleness or if the March data will show an even worse situation. "The picture certainly is adversity," says. He recalls that, when demand reheating, you must first release inventories-that are high only after resuming production. And that takes time, he warns.
War reminds us that this latest "Industrial Indicators" showed that hours worked fell 0.5 percent in February compared with January and 9.5% compared with February last year. Already the real wages grew 0.4 percent compared with January, but down 4.6% compared to February 2014. These are indexes that are directly linked to the ability to purchase, i.e. the demand.
According to the survey, the actual billing (already discounted inflation) grew 1.9% in February compared with January. "Sales are up, but after a fall of three months", warns Economist. I.e. improved sales last month, but mainly because the comparison was made with a weak base. Compared to February last year, however, sales fell 9.6 percent. In comparing the first two months of this year with the same period in 2014, however, it is evident a tendency of falling sales ( -8.8%) evaluates war.
According to CNI Economist, the intensity of deceleration of the purchase of the families comes from 2010, but accelerated in recent times. He remembered the data released last week by the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE), pointing out that household consumption slowed the pace high to 0.9 percent last year, after growing by 2.9% in 2013; 3.9% in 2012; 4.8% in 2011; and 6.4% in 2010. I.e. underscores demand War Fabio does not respond in the same intensity that was showing in previous years. The "traditional" problems, such as high taxation, high bureaucracy, infrastructure deficiencies, among others, now became more evident in scenario of lack of demand, the Economist points out.
In this scenario of adversity, the depreciation of the real against the dollar promises to help Brazilian industry, by the side of exports. For now, however, there is no way to calculate results. War remember that the trend of exchange rate is high, but still swinging. "The entrepreneur can't even plan for the one-year horizon," says the Economist. For some sectors, quotes, War may not be competitive export if the price back to $ 3.00 per dollar. IE, first you will need to wait for the dollar to stabilize for only after know how much this will be beneficial to the domestic industry.
The CNI Economist reminds us that also will need to observe a little more the evolution of important trading partners Brazilian economy, as United States and China. The final balance, in the evaluation of the CNI, is that the foreign market is promising, but still can not be considered an alternative to the Brazilian industry in the face of internal slowdown.