Retailers can close 2015 on the negative, says CNC

With sales below expectations, sectoral entities begin to review the prospects for growth and some have projected a possible fall of retail throughout this year.
"We haven't discussed effectively fall, but if the scenery doesn't change, the projections will be negative this year," said the Economist from DCI National Commerce Confederation for goods, services and tourism (CNC), Fabio Bentes.
The expert forecast was made after the retail sales report weak growth of 0.6% in January compared with the same period last year, according to results released by the IBGE in last Friday (13). The CNC began 2015 with expectation of 2.4% growth, in February the number was revised to 1.7%. After the result of the sales, the projection was in 1%. "As the results come out we remade the projection. In the current situation, what are the odds of this value be revised upwards? "asked.
Pessimism
For him, the greatest consumer concern now is to cut spending, since many fear unemployment. "The labor market is not encouraging even more with GDP projected for this year will be negative. Without growth there is no generation of vacancies, which does not generate income or consumption, "explained the expert.
Another point highlighted by Bentes was extremely expensive credit, which causes the sectors of durable goods-automobiles, appliances and the like-are unable to improve performance in sales, which already was bad last year. "The average interest rate for credit is in 52.6%, the highest since March 2011", argued Economist.
In addition, inflation is eroding the purchasing power of month after month. "Compared to December 2014, January presented 0.5% inflation. When we measure the Broad consumer price index [IPCA], inflation amounted to 1.24%, i.e. more than double the retail. All this makes sales even more complicated, "said the expert.
Result
According to the balance of the Brazilian Institute of geography statistics (IBGE), five of the eight surveyed retail activities restricted-without cars or building material-they had high monthly sales volume, especially for equipment and stationery, computers and communication with high of 12.3 percent and furniture and appliances, with 2.4%. Already sales of fuels and lubricants were stagnant in January compared with December. Nominal retail revenue constrained, in turn, advanced 1.3 percent on a monthly comparison and 6.4% on annual basis.
The volume of retail sales enlarged, which includes vehicles and building materials, rose 0.6 percent in January over the previous month, but with fall of 0.5% in sales of vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces and indentation of 0.1% in construction material. "Last year, the sale of automobiles presented fall of 9.4%. In the comparison between January 2015 and 2015 the fall was 16.6%. This signals the biggest consumer concern with the future. They're insecure about the maintenance of their jobs and postpone the purchase of durable goods that require credit, "said an analyst at CNC.
Bentes made a point of mentioning that, for this year, the entrepreneur must improve their management rather than expect results in sales. "Sales aren't going to evolve much during the period," he concluded.