Retraction in soft drinks is here to stay

The Brazilian soft drink market reached its point of maturity, with decline in sales in the last four years and reduced per capita consumption in most subcategories, including cola soft drinks and low-calorie. Even with the economic recovery, expected in 2017, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend. The conclusion of a study conducted by the senior analyst of Rabobank, Andrés Padilla.
The Rabobank estimates a 4.5% drop in sales of soft drinks this year towards 2015, reaching 14.9 billion liters. For 2017, the forecast fall of 0.7 percent, to 14.8 billion liters. And consecutive annual retreats 1.1%, on average, reaching the 2025 with 13.5 billion litres-a decrease of 13.5% in ten years.
Padilla said that consumer habits changed, and even with the improvement in the disposable income of households, will be difficult for the soft drink manufacturers regain real growth of sales. According to the analyst, the consumption of bottled water remained stable during the recession, while the consumption of carbonated fell, showing that bottled water has gained market share that was previously served by soft drinks.
The contraction of the consumption of low-calorie soft drinks started when the economy was still warm. The recession and the price increases above inflation accelerated the fall of the sector, said the analyst. As is the case in other mature markets, consumption in Brazil drops year by year, as public perception that these drinks have very high levels of sugar or artificial sweeteners. This vision, said Padilla, must still impacting the consumption of these drinks in the future.
In June this year, Ambev, Coca-Cola Brazil and Pepsico have announced they will no longer sell soft drinks in schools, passing the only 100% juice offer, mineral water, coconut water and milk drinks.
According to data of the Control system for the production of beverages (Sicobe) of the internal revenue service, the production of soft drinks in the country totaled 7.8 billion liters this year, until July, 4.4% lower than seen in the first seven months of last year.