Corn growers concerned about climate

Even after the closure of the ideal window of planting the second corn crop in the main growing areas, farmers still have not finished the sowing of cereal. The example of that occurred last year, part of the planting of the winter crop, also called off-season, will occur outside the best time, leaving later crops exposed to greater risk climate.
In the Midwest, the main cereal-producing region, the rains tend to be scarcer from April and sown areas from March may suffer from the lack of moisture in the grain filling period. In Parana State, another important off-season maize producer, the fear is at the risk of excessive cold and frost.
But even with greater climate risk, sources heard by Broadcast Agro (real-time news service the Agência Estado) don''t believe in reducing the area of second harvest. The idea is that, with seeds and inputs purchased, producers should not stop planting. In addition, the strong appreciation of the corn prices earlier this year should stimulate the production of cereal.
"Look at the producer price being paid for corn today, and currently, only leaving to plant if you''re too late," said analyst Yashwant Lodi, INTL FCStone. According to her, the crop estimates already considered part of the area would be sown outside the ideal period and there was no more significant than expected delays.
To the Technical Director of Aprosoja-MT, Luiz Nery Ribas, there is no expectation of reduced area, because "who has already programmed to plant already made the purchase of seeds, and we had a very good time for planting in the first week of March, when there was still relatively little climate risk."
Yesterday, the national supply company (Conab) raised again its estimate of corn second crop area and now considers that 9.72 million hectares will be cultivated with cereal, 1.8% more than in the previous cycle.
The harvest should add 55.28 million tonnes (+1.3%). According to the sixth survey of grain crop, "several factors help explain a strong increase in the planted area, related to the low levels of stocks, both private Government, the national Northeastern demand offseason accentuated by the lack of rains in the region and the reflections of this situation in domestic prices".
However, the State''s technical comment that the decision of planting in Mato Grosso state still depends on the behavior of the climate in the next few weeks, which "has generated a strong producers indecision about the appropriate time for planting of cereal". With respect to the Paraná, the report points out that "the forecast of more rain and frost generated the reduction of production potential in 3.5% in the State in relation to the previous survey.
"In some areas of the Middle northern Mato Grosso, for example, some producers who planted soybeans too soon had great prejudice because of drought, and as the second crop must pay that farmer must bet on corn," explained the researcher Mauro Osaki, the Center for advanced studies in applied economics (Cepea/Esalq/USP).
"The corn is the chance that this producer has to go safra 2016/5:00 pm in a more favourable financial situation."
Now, what concerns the market in relation to the offer is the climate. As the rains tend to be more scarce from May to April, crops sown in March are at greater risk of water stress on flowering phase. In the Midwest, the planting is little more advanced than the reported last year when, even with the delay, the off-season 2015 exceeded expectations and had high yields, due to the extension of the rainy season.
"Last year, even those who planted then had very good productivity, because there was no lack of rain during the period of flowering," said Nahid Ribas. The crowd of producers is to this abnormal climate situation happen again this year, "but historically this is not the rule, crops sown in March have a risk of frustration for rains," warned Ribas. In Mato Grosso, according the Institute Mato-Grossense Agricultural Economy (Investigation), 65.3% of the estimated area was planted by the end of February, leaving 35% for planting out the window. Last year, 64.2% of the crops were planted within the window.
Mauro Osaki, the Cepea, recalled that last year, there have been cases including producers who planted later and produced better than those who sowed the corn in the ideal period. But according to him, climate models do not suggest a condition as favorable this year. "If we have good rains until May and April, guarantee the harvest, at least for the industry have sufficient supply to the domestic market," said Osaki. Ana Luiza, of INTL FCStone, agreed that it is difficult to have a climate as favorable as last year, when the rains were connected to the climatic phenomenon EL Nino, which raises temperatures in the Midwest.
The Analyst commented that in the South of the country, the concern is with excessive cold. "But it''s been raining a lot, which is good for the corn has been planted. Until February 29, reaching 70% of the plantation area in the State of Paraná, in previous years, the planting was only halfway through, "he concluded.