National cocoa harvest should supply demand

After two decades, importing cocoa from West Africa to ensure the national production of almond and chocolate derivatives, Brazil should reap this harvest 2015/16 sufficient to supply the current industrial demand. This self-reliance, which is in the calculations both of producers and industry, is the result of the recovery of the national cocoa production, pulled by the Stop, but also by the bad time of processors, which have reduced the grind because of weak demand for chocolate in the country.
The evidence that the current crop are in an ascending curve are in volumes received by industries. Since the beginning of the harvest in may, until August 9, the processors received 100.1 tons of cocoa from plantations in Brazil, 26% more than in the same period of the last cycle, and more than double the same range of vintage 2013/14, according to TH consulting, in Salvador.
This advance receipts of industries-an indicator of production-occurred even amid the packed stocks of cocoa in the processors.
The positive surprise comes from the Stop. After years of investment in increased production with encouragement of the Executive Committee of the Cocoa Crop (Ceplac), the State should reap at least 100 thousand tons, Jay Wallace Mota, Superintendent of Ceplac in Pará.
Last harvest for the current, an area of 12 thousand hectares began to bear fruit, adding now 118.7 thousand hectares in full activity in the State. Productivity is also gaining body. Early harvest, the yield has reached an average of 912 kilograms per hectare, against 900 kilograms per hectare in 2014/15.
"And we still had an advantage. The production was concentrated between May and August, ideal because it is the dry season, which allows for better quality, "says Jay Wallace Mays.
Despite the advance in Pará, Bahia should continue leading the national production. Henrique Almeida, President of the superior Council of the Association of Cocoa Producers (APC), which represents the cacauicultores across the country, estimates that the total production of Bahia can overcome the 140 thousand tons.
The harvest of the crop early in Bahia is coming down the stretch with the promise of giving 90 thousand tons, as last year, according to Thomas Hartmann, from TH consulting. The analyst prefers to be more cautious with the estimate for the main crop, whose harvest starts in September.
Temporary crop harvesting delays may delay the blooming of the main, but not necessarily harm productivity, says. The main cycle of the crop 2014/15, Bahia producers harvested 65.5 thousand tons.
For Almeida, the APC, the 2015/16 Brazilian harvest, which ends in April next year, can wind up with about 240 thousand tons of harvested, and the production is sustainable for the next years. "The high prices in 2014 caused producers to grow more, deepening the areas," he says.
In Pará, there are 34 thousand hectares with cocoa trees that should start to bear fruit in the next five years. "Each year, 8 to 10 thousand hectares go into production. That is to say an increase and stabilization in the offer, "says the Superintendent of Ceplac. Until next year, the producers from Pará should plant more 10 thousand hectares, which will add to current 153 thousand hectares planted.
Industries already are questioning the projections made by the producers to the national crop. Walter Tegani, Secretary Executive of the AIPC-association representing industries that process 95% of the Brazilian production of cocoa-says he sees "indications of a fall in production in Bahia. He estimated a national production of 210 thousand tons, but admits there is no technical basis in its projection.
The discrepancy between the estimates of producers, industry and own IBGE, which calculates for this year a production well above private projections of 259.8 million tons, is the target of criticism of the processors. The AIPC plans to even meet with the Ministry of agriculture in the coming days to discuss the methodology of crop surveys of the Institute.
However, even considering the industry estimate, production would correspond to the current industrial demand. After a fall of 9% in the grind of the first half, "we should end the year with a lower again processing, perhaps reaching 210 thousand tons," says Tegani. The volume is the same as that estimated by the entity for the national production.
The prospect of a lower cocoa processing is justified by the weakness of the domestic market this year. With less money in your pocket, the Brazilians have spared extra expenses, as with chocolate, which made the industry reduce its production at 9.9% in the first quarter.
Despite the increase in the production of cocoa, Brazilian imports are continuing, but at a much lower rate. Since may-harvest-until July, the industries have acquired abroad 192 pounds of the fruit, according to the statistics system of Agrostat foreign trade of the Ministry of agriculture, raised by the value. During the same period from 2014, were imported over 6 thousand tons.