Packaging sector is out of breath

Portrait of the economy, the packaging sector must close 2014 with production value estimated at $ 56 billion, up from the $ 51.8 billion generated in 2013. However, the expected growth of this industry, that the country's economic performance goal, reflects the movement of consumption and directs future strategies of other sectors, such as retail, should close the year stable or, at most, with slightly negative variation ( -0.7), if the expected, however modest industry recovery in the second half does not come true. The data are from the study "performance of the packaging industry: closing the first half of 2014 and the prospects for the second", released yesterday by the Brazilian Association of packaging (OPEN) and coordinated by Solomon Paintings, Coordinator of economic analyses of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (IBRE/FGV). "It's nothing very exciting or optimistic. But we have to remember that the packaging industry is an accurate portrayal and real Country situation, and everyone knows that the industry generally has suffered enough in recent months, "says the Economist.
The survey from January to June the physical packaging production fell 0.73 percent compared with same period in 2013. The change focused in the second quarter, when production receded in April ( -1.5%) and June ( -3.4). "There is possibility of slight improvement until the end of the year. The canopy and the large number of holidays explain things, and the end of June bad contaminated some manufacturers ' expectations. But already there are signs of slight improvement (in July), and if it continues at this rate, stability (production variation at 0.0 percent) will be a good result, "says Frames.
Without investments
In the period, sectors with positive performance-and that as a result, more demanded of them – were packaging apparatus for reception of audio and video (TVs), with high of 20.26% compared to same period in 2013, whose sales were pulled by the World Cup. As a result, handset manufacturers and come from smartphones, who grew up 10.01 percent, and third, cleaning products, with high of 5.22%. But, when speaking in the panorama of physical production of the Community industry compared to the other, the differences are significant. While the overall industry fell 2.6 percent in the first six months of 2014, compared to 2.94% high in same period in 2013, in packaging retraction of 1.97% from 2013 fell 0.73 percent.
On the other hand, the capital goods industry (machinery and etc), which recorded high of 11.84% between January and June 2013, fell 8.28% in the same months of 2014. The durable consumer goods (such as automobiles) also shrank: from 8.58% (positive) to 8.57% (negative). The only sector that grew, according to the analysis of nondurable goods — that is, the "large packaging buyers," according to Tables, such as the food and pharmaceutical industries. Here, the high was 0.57 percent to 2.52%.
"No one leaves to go to the supermarket or buy medicine – which explains this positive result and the improvement in the packaging sector. But the consumption is increasingly slowly, and in the current scenario, consumers are unwilling to be in debt, and the companies are holding their investments, "says Frames.
Foot in reality
In the balance of trade in the sector, the inverse movement surprised: while imports closed the quarter with $ 420,3 million and fall of 4.11% compared to same period in 2013, exports, even with smaller value ($ 249 million), grew by 4.7%. "The exchange rate went up in early February and stayed at 2.4. Later, devalued. This was a soprozinho of competitiveness for the sector, "he says.
As for the level of employment, the sector closed the first half with 230,909 jobs – an increase of 719 posts, or a mild high of 0.31%, as compared to the same period last year. But, overall, the rate of employees, which in 2013 was at 2%, now comes back. "The risk of rising unemployment is a reality, in the face of an increase in interest scenario, slowdown of credit and confidence indices. But it's not immediately, because the results are slow to appear ", completes the Economist.
With election, producing indents.

Weak demand, high stockpiles and, to complicate matters further, a quarter taken for the elections. In summary, a perspective nothing bright "for the second half, as it reveals the" packing "Industry poll, conducted in July by IBRE/FGV with 106 companies in the sector (around 30% of the total), which account for $ 15.9 billion in sales and have 45 thousand employees.

' For survival instinct, business people in General think that everything is going to get worse, said Solomon Paintings, FGV-Fábio D'castro/Hype.
For research, the difference between what companies think the demand will be weak is 14 percentage points compared to those who think it will be stronger. Already among those who consider excessive stocks and those that do not, is 21 points. As for the jobs, the difference between those who want to hire and who intends to fire fell 4 points. Regarding the purchase of inputs in the quarter, the difference between who will increase purchases and who will reduce is 12 points. The number of companies that already considers difficult take credit decreased to 31 to 11 points. In turn, the capacity utilization fell to 83.2 percent in July, compared with 88.2% in April. "This idleness due to weak demand," explains Solomon Paintings, Coordinator of economic analyses of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (IBRE/FGV).

The difference between the entrepreneurs who believe that the business situation will improve and those who think it will get worse in the next six months have fallen month-to-month: of 50 percentage points in January this year, until the 6:0 pm Jul. "Instinct of survival, business people in General think it will get worse. But it is worth remembering that this is the portrait of the moment, then changed. " Another indicator points to the scenario more retracted: elections. The poll, in the third quarters of the last three election years (2002/2006/2010), compared to other years, the physical production of packing suffered falls of 1.77%, 1.06% and 0.46% respectively. "I wouldn't say it's rule, but the proximity of the elections does not seem to have a dynamic effect on the production of packaging," he points out.

On those results, the Economist outlines the already mentioned two scenarios: the stability (0.0%) within an upper limit of growth, and fall ( -0.7) – the most likely. "In January, we imagine a growth of 1.5%. Today, we have zero. But are variables upon a momentary situation, and may change. Anyway, even negative, the variation is quite mild compared to the industry as a whole ", he concludes.