Chicken meat maintains its competitiveness

Even if it has declined drastically last month in the domestic market, the relative advantage of the chicken meat prices in relation to the beef, the Brazilians ' favorite protein, is still enough to stimulate demand for the product.
Overall, the recovery of more than 20% in the prices of wholesale chicken meat of the greater Sao Paulo was a response to the skyrocketing of the dollar, the currency that goal the price of grains used in animal feed. To cope with the cost of production and try to preserve margins, refrigerators increased chicken prices. But, according to analysts, the price differential only approached the historical average. Moreover, an eventual recovery in demand for beef in the domestic market would be met with either on a shortage of supply-cattle slaughter retreated about of 10% in the first half, point data of IBGE.
"What is happening is that the heights between the proteins are returning to historical levels," said Rabobank analyst, Adolfo sources. According to a survey of the Dutch Bank, the difference between the quotations of the cold chicken and beef wholesale housing peaked in mid-April, when the price of a kilo of beef was equal to the value of three pounds of chicken-2015 average is 2.7 times.
In September, however, the sharply higher the boned chicken-combined with a much more modest rise of beef-, reduced this difference gradually, from 2.71 times in the end of August to 2.345 times in 30 September. It is a difference well closer to the historical average of 2.25 times since the beginning of 2010, according to a survey made by the Rabobank.
"Still, the chicken should continue selling more. The beef may have a recovery, but as the offer is restricted, it is not enough to take the delay, "said sources, in allusion to the expected fall of per capita consumption of beef in Brazil. According to the national supply company (Conab), the annual per capita consumption of beef in Brazil will reach 30.8 pounds this year, down 11.7% before 2014.
To the Executive Secretary of the Brazilian Association of producers of chicks (Apinco), José Carlo Godoy, is an "overstatement" to say that the chicken meat was less competitive. "If you take the data from retail, will find that the chicken is still competitive, even with the second beef", he argued.
In addition, Gandhi also pondered the high chicken prices, even having reached 20%, it is not "exceptional" when you consider the month of September. "This move has already happened in 2013 and in 2014". According to him, this is associated with the off-season in the supply of cattle-which tends to reduce the supply of beef and raise the price of the product.
But the impact of competing meats offer is not the only factor of pressure on the share price of chicken meat in the domestic market. As a partner at MB Agro, José Carlos Hausknecht, the strong external demand also helped the ' dry ' chicken supply in the country, raising prices.
Date of 2015 until September, exports of poultry meat have grown 4.8%, to 3.2 million tonnes, according to data from the Bureau of foreign trade (Secex/Mdic) compiled by the Brazilian Association of Animal protein (ABPA).
Going forward, however, the expectation is that chicken prices stay stable as Hausknecht, which should keep the bird's meat cheaper than beef. "The price is already approaching the limit. We don't have any expectations of major increases "evaluated.
On the other hand, the chances of falling prices for beef and chicken are very small, and their own refrigerators also point in that direction. In a recent interview with Value, executives of BRF, JBS Foods and Aurora designed typical meat prices to the end of the year will be more expensive than in the same period last year-but, in General, below the index of inflation in the country.