Brazil's coffee crop will be 17% lower in 2019, predicts Conab

Brazil is expected to produce 50,920,000 sacks of 60 kg of coffee in 2019, a reduction of 17.4% before 2018, estimated on Thursday (17) The National Supply Company (CONAB). The decline is motivated by the negative bieniality of the Arabica crop this year – of course, the crop produces much in a given year and less in the following – and effects of high temperatures and rainfall shortages between December and January in some regions, according to Entity. The second forecast of the state for this year's production was closer to the floor of the previous projection range, from 50.5 million to 54.5 million sacks, which had been released in January, still with the growing crop. At this time, coffee growers from the largest producer and global exporter have already begun to harvest coffees in some regions. Production by Type The survey shows that the production of Arabica coffee in Brazil should reach 36,980,000 sacks (-22.1% before 2018), being at the center of the interval expected in January (between 36.1 million and 38.1 million sacks). The production of Robusta coffee (Conilon) was predicted in 13.9 million sacks, below the range of 14.4 million to 16.3 million bags of the previous forecast. If confirmed, the crop of this variety would have a decline of 1.7% in the annual comparison. The drop in production expected to 2019 should occur after a record in the harvest of 2018, above 61 million sacks. Smaller, but robust crop Despite an annual retreat, this year's crop will still be the largest for years of low biennial arabica. The big harvest, one of the largest in Brazil, should help keep the markets stocked – future commodity prices, close to minimums in more than a decade in the new York stock Exchange, signal this. In recent years, amid the reduction of planted area, "it is notorious" the productivity gains that Brazilian producers have achieved, with the application of new technologies in the culture, stressed the Conab. For the 2019 crop, the average yield of the Brazilian crop (arabica and Conilon) was estimated at 27.63 sacks/hectare, a reduction of 16.5% in relation to the last season. "This decrease should occur in almost all major producing regions, especially those with Arabica coffee, due to the impacts caused by the negative bienality, in addition to the unfavorable climatic conditions recorded between December 2018 and January 2019, "said state-owned in a statement. The arabica, a species most influenced by bienality, had an estimated yield of 25.16 sacas/ha, a decrease of 20.7% before 2018. The average yield of the conilon in this crop was estimated at 37.34 Sacas/ha, signaling a decrease of 3.3% in relation to the previous season. "The estimated yield in the northeast, particularly in the Atlantic region of Bahia, was far below the expected and this impacted on the expectation of average productivity. In the other producing states, all projections point to an increase in the average yield, "said Conab, pointing to a 1% increase in the productivity of Espírito Santo, the largest producer of Conilon. Smaller area The total area cultivated in the country with coffee (arabica and Conilon) totalizes 2,160,000 hectares, equivalent to that cultivated in 2018, Conab said. Of this total, 319,720 hectares (14.8%) are in formation and 1,840,000 hectares (85.2%) In production. In the current crop, the area in production was reduced by 1.1%, while the area in formation increased 8.7% compared to the previous crop, a good sign for the production in the future. Because it is a crop of negative bienality, Conab said, it is normal for producers to take advantage of cultural treatment in crops in 2019 and, consequently, decrease the area in production.