Should prices fall for the first time at Christmas

RIO-Brazilian consumers must find cheaper Christmas presents this year. The prices of most goods and services consumed at the end of the year are heading for record deflation for the first time in at least 17 years, according to calculations of the National Confederation of trade in goods, services and tourism (CNC).

The survey, started in 2001, considered the price movement of 214 items, which has accumulated a fall of 1.1 percent in the 12 months to October, after advances of 9.8% last year and 10.4% in 2015. The calculation had as reference the results of the national consumer price index Broad-15 (IPCA-15), determined by the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE).
In the last 12 months ended in October, the biggest price setbacks were recorded by cell phone devices (-9.1%) and TV equipment, sound and data processing (-7.7%) and food at home (-5.4%). Behind the reductions are the favorable exchange rate, technological substitution and the agricultural harvest record, explained Fabio Bentes, head of the Economic Division of the CNC, responsible for the survey. At the other end, the airfares (+ 17.9%), the intercity bus tickets (+ 7.2%) and tennis (+ 6.9%) should be considerably more expensive than last Christmas.
The consumption basket cheaper combined with the improvement in the labour market, reducing consumer interest and extraordinary features (such as PIS/Pasep) made CNC review the growth projection of sales for Christmas, from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2017. Retail comes from two crashes in a row in the Christmas sales: -5% in 2015 and 4.9%-in 2016. In 2014, there were 1.8% advance.
"If the situation improves, if the scenario remain favorable, we can have a Christmas with even better than sales in 2013, when it grew 5%. It would be the best Christmas in five years. This higher growth is not thrown, "said Fabio Bentes.
The expectation is that retailers move R $34.7 billion in 2017. The supermarkets (R $11.6 billion), apparel (R $9 billion) and personal and domestic articles (R $5 billion) should account for two-thirds of the Christmas sales, but the largest increase over the previous year should take place in the shops of furniture and appliances with progress expected from 17.4% in volume sold.
Job. "The job market help better performance. It's been six months of formal jobs generation by Caged (General Register of employed and unemployed of the Ministry of labour), the unemployment rate comes retreating. With low inflation and increased occupancy, the budget of families just preserved, "he recalled Bentes.
The improvement in the expectation of higher demand will sales by temporary workers. CNC revised of 73100 for forecasting 73800 hiring formal workers for Christmas this year. The sectors with greatest generation of vacancies are clothing and footwear (48400 vacancies), supermarkets and hypermarkets (10300) and personal and domestic articles (8000).
The average salary of admission should reach R $1,188, a 7.0% in nominal terms compared with the same period last year. The highest salary of admission shall be paid by the branch of pharmaceutical items, perfumes and cosmetics (R $1,443), followed by specialty stores selling computer products and communication (R $1,389).