Retailers continue to stock volume alert

São Paulo-adopt caution on volume of stocks has been a strategy increasingly by retailers, seeking to adapt to the 2016 scenario, of a cooled economy and impacted directly by the crisis. With that, the industrial applications must follow the pace of sales slowed.
According to the Federation of trade in goods, services and tourism of the State of São Paulo (FecomercioSP), this is a good thermometer, since much of the sector shows alert and believes that the best way out is to adopt a more appropriate volume of goods to avoid high rate of stranding and prejudice.
A proof of this is that this month there was a higher proportion of businessmen who have said exactly be with stocks in the appropriate situation, after a few months of bitter stranding of some categories on the shelves in stores.
In the question, the Stocks index search (IE) calculated by the institution indicates that rose from 45.3% in January to 48.2% in February the number of entrepreneurs with this opinion. In addition, there was also a decrease in the share of retailers with stocks below the appropriate, which went from 16.9% to 15.8%, and of those who claimed to have excess goods, from 37.6% to 35.7%.
The fall in consumption and rising unemployment have indicated that entrepreneurs need to understand the complexity due to the worsening economic crisis. The Fecomercio also highlights, through note, IE, with the perception of stock adjusted for right way, rose to 96.6 points in February, compared to 90.8 points in January to 6.4% advance.
The survey aims to capture the perceptions of traders about the volume of goods stocked in stores, and ranges from zero (total inadequacy) 200 points (total adequacy). The mark of 100 points is the line between inadequate and fitness. Despite the improvement this month, when comparing February 2016 to the result of the same month the previous year, the indicator presents fall of 106.9 points. The indentation, in this case, is 9.6%.
Less orders
It is expected that in the coming months the excess inventory is eliminated, but mainly by the reduction of new orders, which shall be made in such a way adjusted to sales demand.
The expectation is the excess inventory is eliminated, but not as a result of the resumption of sales, but rather the reduction of new orders, already perceived at retail. In this way, certainly the consumer goods industry must feel in full the fall in the volume of orders to supply the store shelves and the climate of uncertainty should remain.
In the case of the retail trade in the State of São Paulo, the FecomercioSP points out that the resumption of sales growth is unlikely in the medium term, and claims that in 2016 it may consolidate the biggest crisis ever experienced by the segment in the region, with expressive activities retractions with no signs of cooling, continuing a low scenario perspective.
Internal demand
Another indicator that usually point out the direction of the sector comes from surveys by national commerce Confederation for goods, services and tourism (CNC). About two months ago, the entity already pointed warning sign, so that entrepreneurs try to be aware of the scenario of internal demand weak.
The prospect in December sales was slowed down and, thus, that the industry probably could get very 2016 '' stored ''. That''s because next month is the period of greatest volume of sales to all segments of the retail trade, the entity had pointed to stocks indicating the worst level in four years. On occasion, the entrepreneur confidence index of Commerce (Icec) 30.7% of respondents stating stocks above the well, even percentage of November and the biggest since the beginning of the survey, in March 2011.
For analysts, not only the large networks need to be attentive to promotions and seasonal dates, so as not to lose the attention of customers. Mainly small businesses should try to negotiate better terms with suppliers, to offer the end customer more favourable conditions of purchases. After all, the fall of consumption should continue as it was in 2015 before 2014, when indentation of 3.5% in this regard, according to the FGV.