Bakers ' shrinks ' and affects wheat milling

That bread, quinoa, sesame seeds or herbs, is leaving the Brazilian table. Croissants, pastries and a large portion of wheat derivatives "superfluous" are getting out of the consumer's shopping baskets. The effect of this change is being felt in wheat milling industry. In the first half, the cereal processing fell by about 10% in the country. Half of the national production of flour for the bakery.
In the accounts of the Association that represents the industry, Abitrigo, around 600 thousand tons of cereal are no longer processed from January to June this year due to this shrinkage in consumption. The volume is 10% of the total of 6 million tonnes which is typically rendered in the range.
The President of the deliberative Council of Abitrigo, Marcelo Vosnika, notes that the use of the installed capacity of the Community industry dropped to levels of 50% to 60%, 10 percentage points below its average. The industrial park installed in the country is able to process per year between 16 million and 17 million tons of cereal.
In addition, the low demand leaves little space for the mills will be able to pass the increased costs, in particular those resulting from spending on electric power, whose successive adjustments since the end of 2014 meant an increase of 5% to 6% in total costs of this industry, in Abitrigo calculations.
"Faced with the current level of costs, we should be selling a ton of flour to $ 1,900, and not for $ 1.8 mil, as is the current price" compares Christian Saigh, President of the Union that represents the mills of São Paulo (Sindustrigo-SP)-State who leads the consumption of flour in the country.
Sao Paulo now has 13 windmills, which add up to a capacity of 2.3 million to process 2.5 million tons of cereal per year. The use of the Park installed fell, according to Saigh, to 68% of the total and should close the year 65%, compared to the 75% of the average of recent years. "We are with profits flat. By volume, lost 8%; in billing, 12%, and the fall of profit was 20%, "he says.
The São Paulo embittered bakeries in the first half of this year a fall close to 10% in your Bill. The President of the Union that is home to such establishments in the State, the Sindipan-SP, Antero José Pereira, explains that there was no pullback in demand for the traditional French bread, but a stability. The retreat focused on higher value-added products, such as specialty breads, cakes and other bakery items.
In the segment of pasta, biscuits and industrialized breads, for now there are no signs of slowdown, as Claudio Zanão, President of the Union that represents the manufacturers of these items, the Abimpa. There is only, as he, a mere replacement of more expensive brands for cheaper alternatives.
The smallest milling has reflexes on the wheat trade balance-Brazil is one of the largest global net importers of cereal-and also about the prospects for profitability of Brazilian producer of wheat, which has already begun to reap the current crop.
Cereal imports fell 14% January to June to 2.5 million tonnes. The country brings from abroad at least half the volume of wheat it needs, which in total is slightly less than the 12 million tonnes per year. In the calculations of Conab, the domestic consumption of cereal in 2015 should add 11.3 million tons, down from the 10.7 million in 2014. On the economic situation, the market believes that the municipality will adjust its forecast down.
On the domestic front, the prices offered by the new cereal harvest are lower than if paid at this time last cycle's product, says the senior analyst of the Wheat Flour & consulting (T&F), Luiz Carlos Pacheco. "Stocks of the mills are elongated. So they are in no hurry to buy. Now offering $ 600 per tonne new crop wheat, against r $ 650 by the previous season's cereal, "he says.
The appetite of the mills can change the picture, but the current picture shows the cost of cereal import 20% above the amount paid internally. "This import parity, pulled by the high dollar will only be followed by domestic price if the mills need to buy more cereal", says the Director of the Organization of the Paraná Cooperatives (Ocepar), Flávio Turra.
So far, 2% of the expected harvest of 3.9 million tons of wheat from the Parana was sold in advance, as the Ocepar. "There is no tradition in advance sale of the cereal. But, in previous years, the percentage was higher, "says Charlie. According to Conab, Brazil must produce in 2015 6.9 million tons of cereal.