Benefited by high prices, export should be record

With a record export expectation, the production of maize from Brazil continues to benefit from a high price due to problems in the United States harvest. Reducing consumption by China still does not generate concern. " Prices rose at the beginning of the harvest of the second harvest in June. This occurred due to problems in the US planting caused by excessive rainfall, "explains AgRural's market analyst, Adriano Gomes. The projection of the National Supply Company (CONAB) disclosed on Thursday (11) indicates that exports should Reach 33.5 million tons in the 2018/19 crop, record level, exceeding the mark of 30.8 million tons in 2016/17 and being well above the result of the last harvest (23.8 million tons). Gomes points out that the price of the bushel (25.40 kilos) of maize had an appreciation of almost a dollar between May and June and that this boosted the average price in Brazil. "In São Paulo there was an 11% growth in August futures contracts for delivery to the port of Santos. In the best moment of June, the sack reached R $41.55. " He points out that the high level of the dollar compared to the real also benefited the exporters of corn. On Thursday (11) The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the country's corn production estimate to 13.875 billion bushels. Last month, the projection was 13.68 billion bushels. Despite this, the futures contracts closed in the Chicago stock Exchange. "I don't think you can talk about crop breaking. But if it does not produce enough corn, the U.S. will have to import more from Brazil and other countries, such as Argentina, "says Gomes. The general Coordinator of annual crops of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and supply (MAPA), José María dos Anjos, declared in press conference that price high is benefiting the country. "The producer is having income and we are exporting, generating employment and balance for the trade balance of Brazil." Also on Thursday (11), the Ministry of Agriculture of China declared that it reduced its projection for the consumption of maize in the crop year 2019/20, amid outbreaks of African swine fever throughout the country. The prediction was decreased in 2 million tons compared to the previous month, due to the reduction of the swine herd and, consequently, the demand for feed. Gomes evaluates that this crisis can impact Brazilian exports, but that the situation is still uncertain. "It can bring down the volume, but for now there is no worry. In addition, the need to import meat by the Chinese may end up stimulating the domestic consumption of maize by Brazilian swine producers. " Grain crop The Conab survey indicates that the production of the 2018/19 grain crop in Brazil should reach the record 240.7 million tons. Growth should be 5.7% or 13 million tons above the 2017/18 crop. The planted area is expected to 62.9 million hectares, which represents an increase of 1.9% in relation to the previous crop. According to Conab, "one of the biggest highlights of the period, compared to the previous crop 2017/18, is the second crop corn", with a record production forecast of 72.4 million tons, growth of 34.2%. " Already the first crop corn should stay at 26.2 million tons, ie, fall of 2.5%. Thus, the total maize crop in 2018/19 should reach 98.5 million tons (22% increase over the previous period, which was 80,710,000 tons). In the case of soybeans, Conab's prediction indicates a 3.6% reduction in production, reaching 115 million tons.