Lack of short-term economic measures poses a risk to industrial employment

The lack of short-term economic measures has left the industry reticent to invest in increased production. For analysts, the sector needs more concrete signals from the federal government, at the risk of further aggravating the level of labor and the idleness of companies. "Current management attempts to forward long-term structural problems, which in fact need to be resolved, but it also requires a more immediate plan to reactivate the economy and move forward with recovery. If left as is, the country will have a year of recession ", estimates the Economist of the Institute of Studies for Industrial Development (IEDI), Rafael Cagnin.Na Vision of it, the picture drawn in the first quarter, with a drop in industrial production disseminated in all Sectors and retreat in the use of installed capacity, shows that optimism about the performance of the economy does not have much justification. "It is not a punctual situation, pulled by only one segment, and that can be easily reversed in the coming months," he says. Cagnin evaluates that, unlike previous years, there is no measure or conjuncture to give breath to the economy. "Factors such as the positive agricultural crop, release of the FGTS withdrawal and good international dynamism helped the positive trajectory in 2017, when the industry began to give signs of resumption. Since 2018, these conditions have lost strength and nothing has been put in place, "he explains. The Economist explains that neither the reduction of the basic interest rate has brought an impact to the resumption of consumption. He still believes that GDP should grow at the end of the year, but without great expressiveness. "This is reinforced by a challenging international scenario. The Brazilian industry needs new investments or is at risk of being left behind in this moment of great technological transformation. " Cagnin stresses that high idleness does not favor the contributions. "Job generation has been worse. However, the industrial workforce has come to lead the recovery of employment and now it is not so. " The economics professor at Ibmec-SP, Walter Franco, evaluates that the industrial performance of the first quarter was worse than expected. "It was a very strong fall. The economy is still skating, asking for clearer signage in terms of industrial policy so that the necessary investments are made. " He believes that the government needs to make a more concrete signalling for entrepreneurs to invest and hire. "It takes a first step, faster adoption of reforms and privatization processes. Given the circumstances of public accounts, it is necessary to attract private investment to generate jobs again. " The professor of economics and Finance of Ibmec-RJ, Marcelo Mello, points out that a negative industrial result was expected, due to the Argentine crisis and general paralysis in view of the expectation of approval of the pension reform. "But it was even worse than imagined. Congress needs to accelerate the reforms. There are many foreign investors waiting to put money in the country. " Retreat data from the monthly Industrial survey, published last Friday (03) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), show a decline of 2.2% in the accumulated of the first three months of the year. The four major economic categories (capital goods, intermediate goods, durable consumer goods and semi-durable and non-durable goods and consumption) had retraction. On Thursday (02), the March indicators of the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) pointed to stagnation of industrial employment and a decline of 11.3% of the actual revenues of the industry in comparison with the same month of 2018. The use of installed capacity reached 76.5%, annual drop of 1.8 percentage point and the lowest level registered since May 2018.