Foods tend to contribute to lower prices until the end of 2017

São Paulo-despite possible high seasonal price in the second half, inflation of food must continue helping to pull the IPCA General down to the end of this year. For next year, but without the reflections of the supersafra, expected to be between 3% and 4%. The latest data of the national consumer price index (IPCA), the Brazilian Institute of geography and statistics (IBGE) point out that the food and beverage group was one of the supporting cast in the deflation seen in June, to 0.23%. In the monthly variation, the category retreated 0.50 percent last month, compared with the 0.35%-may, pulled mainly by home power, fall of 0.93%. According to the Deputy Head of the school of economy, administration and accounting of the University of São Paulo (FEA/USP), Heron Carlos do Carmo, the situation will be "favourable" about the food prices in the coming months and even for the beginning of 2018. "Despite any effects of seasonal increase in prices in the second half, climate cycles and this year''s record crop stock tend to hold the results for the term" comments. According to the national supply company (Conab), the estimate of the crop corresponding to the period of 2016 and 2017 will be 237,200,000 tons of grain, a record production and an increase of 27.1% compared to the previous period of 2015 and 2016. "The supersafra guarantees more rational expectations that there will be no pressure on food prices and this effect should spread until January or February of next year," analyzes the professor of Economics at Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, Augustine Celso Pascalicchio. Tendency to fall at the other end, however, the difficulty in repeating the numbers of supersafra next year and the possibility of change in relation to the "major commodities like corn, soybeans and wheat, can bring smaller offerings and pressure on the prices of chicken and pork meat. For the Economist and researcher of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Ibre/FGV), André Barrie, these points can have fundamental reflections on food inflation of 2018. "It is natural to have a difference in yield from one year to another and this is already accounted for. The primary issue is in commodities, mainly because it depends on a lot of the international market that impact both in imports as the country''s livestock feed, interfering in the prices of meat, "explains the expert the Ibre/FGV. He points out that, in the home, the sensitivity is concentrated mainly in the bean. According to data of IBGE, the carioca beans-which came to be released to 42% in June last year and was one of those responsible for the increase of 60% in inflation-period already demonstrates a retreat of 30.78 percent in 12 months accumulated until June. Monthly change, on the other hand, the increase was from 25.86 percent compared to may. "We''re more sensitive to beans and, as we are experiencing some seasonal highs, it may be that some products don''t fall so much that the power be with near zero rate. Anyway, these fluctuations should not bring major complications, "says Barrie and considers that, for the next year, the expectation is that food prices follow the IPCA. "Our expectation is to reach the end of 2018 with food inflation between 3% and 4%," the Economist. "That''s because at the end of the year, normally in the second half, there are some foods and beverages that tend to have some kind of reset and can pull a little more the General prices," adds professor of finance at the Escola Superior de Propaganda e Marketing (ESPM), Adriano Garcia. The experts still ponder other probable scenarios that may compromise food prices next year. "If the United States continued with their barriers, it can spread to other countries and interfere with the brazilian trade balance," says Garcia. "In addition, another point is the exchange rate. If you look at any devaluation of the real, this will be another negative force for 2018, "adds Andrew Barron, the Ibre. Experts ponder, however, that these factors are much "speculative" and that the expectation is still more positive than negative. "The foods have observed falls on time and are not necessarily responsible for the fall of the IPCA. They helped, of course, but there is volatility in prices. Anyway, the situation is still favorable and demonstrates a trend of general decline, "concludes Heron, the FEA.