Aviculture expects second half better to compensate for warm start to the year

Brazil's poultry industry will depend on a good performance in the second half to reach their growth projections for 2014, after a first half marked by a more moderate consumption than initially expected, said analysts and experts.
The increase in exports in the first half was less than 1 percent, compared with the forecast expansion of industry between 2 and 2.5 percent. Domestically, the performance was similar, with the expected increase in meat consumption during the World Cup getting below the expected, amid concerns about inflation and the indebtedness of Brazilian family.
"We have to work to achieve the goals that we thought we were pretty conservative, but which today we see that are not so conservative, but reasonable," said the President of the Brazilian Association of Animal protein (ABPA), Francisco Turra.
Initially, the ABPA estimated a resumption of domestic consumption to levels from 2012, when totaled 45 kg per person in the year. Last year consumption was 42 kg, and so far this volume is around 43 kg, according to the monitoring the ABPA.
"We've seen so far a growth in export volume less than anticipated... Internal consumption, there was a small increase to meet a greater demand, but still nothing that excited about, "added Turra.
The analyst Aedson Pereira of the consultancy reports on Economics FNP pondered that expectations were high because of the World Cup, but the growth was not significant.
"Improved, but that's not all ... There must be something related to the issue of purchasing power of the population. The price of meat has risen enough in several places in Brazil, "he said.
He pointed out that sees room for growth in chicken consumption in the second half which is traditionally the strongest in sales for the meat sector, allowing these projections of the industry to consolidate.

The positive outlook for the industry is based on a scenario of lower prices of grains, greater weight item in the cost of poultry production, before the increased offer from the second crop of maize in the country, combined with the increase in the price of chicken in areas like São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Southern States and the Midwest.
"The price paid for the chicken producer, associated with a significant drop in the prices of corn in various States producers because of the condition that the crop of second time offered, ends up having a joint industry-friendly," said Pereira.
The second crop of maize from Brazil, being harvested at the moment, benefited by favorable rains to crops, development must reach a volume larger than initially expected, which brought down the share price of corn.
The Cepea/Esalq indicator, reference for business in plain sight in the country, accumulates losses of more than 27 percent since the peak year in mid-March.
The information analyst added that firmer prices of pork and bovine proteins, so-called competitors, by domestic issues and international market, also benefit the chicken meat industry.
"Whether or not It affects the poultry market, affects consumer decision", said the analyst.