Beer sector will have lower production in 2013

The production of the Brazilian market of beers this year will not be the same as back in the day. The pressure on the costs of raw materials and supplies in dollars, seasonality of colder climate, which is adverse to the industry and the decline in the purchasing power of the population, more indebted, are some of the negative factors. The beer market had been growing at rates of 6%, year over year, in production, in the period from 2004 to 2012, according to the Brazilian Association of Brewers (CervBrasil). For 2013, the expectation in the second half, considered the most promising for the market, due to the arrival of the warmer seasons, is at least stalling the production with the same period of the previous year.
"In 2011 we have a growth in production of 6.7%.But in 2013, the deceleration was brutal. To be able to tie the game, it would be necessary, in the second half of this year, growing 1% more than was produced in the same period in 2012, "says Paulo de Tarso Petroni, CEO of CervBrasil.
The production in the second half of 2012, according to figures tallied by the control System for the production of beverages (Sicobe), internal revenue service, grew 4 percent compared to the same period in 2011. The accounts of CervBrasil, for this year, only to avoid losses, the industry should have a growth in production of 5%.
"Companies in the industry understand what happened at that time in the market. Inflation, the loss of purchasing power, the indebtedness of the population help erode the thread of cold drinks, case of beer. Each one creates its strategy to circumvent the adversities, "adds Petroni.
With respect to prices and the possible transfer to the final consumer, he says that this is a decision that part of the strategies of each manufacturer. The analyst Marcelo Torto, of Active broker, believes that the sector as a whole is likely to think about a transfer for the price in the second half.
He recalls that the volume of beer has nothing to do with the income and GDP, and the scenery is still uncertain. Specifically in the case of AmBev, which owns 70% of the Brazilian market of beer, the analyst assesses the impact of the dollar will be smaller this year, since the company has hedged around R $ 1.90.
"Only in 2014 a real impact will be felt," he says. According to the analyst, AmBev will have growth in average sales ticket, working for greater penetration of their brands in the premium segment, they earn market.