PACKAGING SECTOR PREDICTS SLOWDOWN in second half

After registering growth of 2.66% in physical production in the first half of 2013, the Brazilian industry of packaging provides smaller advance from July to December, of 1%, in comparison with the same period of the previous year. The weakening must accompany the trajectory of nondurable consumer goods (food, beverages, hygiene and cleaning products), the largest buyer of the input, which expects slowdown in business in the second half of the year. Thus, the packaging industry is projected to close in 2013 high of 2%.
In billing, the annual growth rate will be higher. Packaging manufacturers must obtain revenues of r $ 50.4 billion, a 7.9% advance over the r $ 46.7 billion generated in 2012. "The disparity between volume and value was due to high prices, which reflects inflation," said the Coordinator of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Ibre/FGV), Solomon Paintings, in event of the Brazilian packaging Association (Abre), held yesterday.
The first half of the year was marked by an uneven performance in the industry: in the first three months, the growth was 4.8%, followed by rate of only 0.6% in the following quarter. "Packing industry began the year racing, maybe above the market demand. In the second quarter, so there must have been a period of inventory adjustment, "believes Frames.
Despite the abrupt fall of the level of growth, the Economist rules out retreat in the second half of the year. "Survey of July shows that the packing industry assesses that their stocks now are low, so we can expect high production in the third quarter, to reset. With this set, there must be new slowdown in the last quarter of the year, casts the specialist.
The trajectory of the consumer goods sector semi and nondurable corroborates the view that the packaging industry should not cease to grow. After a first quarter fall of 3.6% in production in this category, the period from April to June registered a rise of 2.5 percent but in July polling, this industry casts more moderate advance in six months the end of the year. "Packaging and consumer goods had opposite trajectories in the first half and now can meet," believes.
The employment situation in packaging industry also reinforces the prospect of growth. In the 12 months until June 2013, there was recovery of 4.1 thousand jobs in the sector, compared to fall of almost 800 jobs in 12 months a year before.
On the other hand, contributes to the moderation in advance of the second half the fact the basis for comparison to same period in 2012 be stronger than in the first half. In 2012, the industry had production fall 2% in the first six months of the year, recovered partially in a growth of 1.6% from July to December. All year closed at 1.19% drop in production.
Thus, the growth of 2% for 2013 retrieves the retraction of 2012. It is, however, below the perspectives of FGV for GDP and industry, 2.3% advance and 2.6%. These indexes are under low bias and can be reduced.
Effects of macroeconomics
The Coordinator of FGV commented expectations of macroeconomic variations effects on the sector. The loss of confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers, reflection of what Paintings classified as "erratic manner with which the Government has driven the economy", tends to be a brake to the industrial growth. Also the trend of raising the Selic basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy, must restrict access to credit and investments.
The new exchange rate level, although cause negative effects in the short term, affecting for example the debt of companies with dollar obligations, must encourage manufacturers of packaging in a longer horizon. The encouragement of exports and reducing imports give better perspective to the sector, despite the weakening of demand. "The high-dollar will be gradually passed on to prices. This can generate inflation or loss of banks in the chain, "he said.