Christmas must have 2nd worst result since 2001

Christmas this year should be the second worst in sales since 2001 and the prospect is that the revenue kick to the 2012 level, according to the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC). With 3,600,000 unemployed more than in December 2015, the Brazilian is unsure to buy on credit. When you choose to pay cash, seeks to spend less.
The climate of uncertainty affects even the tenants of malls, which typically are more optimistic. Over the weekend, the malls had good flow of consumers, but with sales below expectations. It is expected that this framework will improve from today, when the Brazilians receive the second installment of the 13th salary.
"Consumption is out of space and the sales are not growing," States the Chief Economist of the CNC, Izis Ferreira. The delay to the economy fit made to widen the entity projection of sales drop for Christmas, of 3.5% to 4.0%. She explains that although the percentage of retraction be less-in 2015, the fall was 7.1% – this year will be to "drop on falling".
Izis notes that until the confidence of entrepreneurs in the trade, that recovering quickly, stopped growing from November to December, according to the indicator that will be released today by the CNC.
The lack of optimism among traders is attested by the President of the Association of Tenants of Malls (Alshop), Nabil Sahyoun. "At the end of the week, the flow of people in the malls was good, but the conversion in sales was low," he says. This means that there were more people moving around, but few people buying.
Sahyoun believes there was anticipation of purchases because of Black Friday, the megaliquidação of the end of November. Moreover, with limited credit, rising unemployment and the climate of insecurity, he designs for Christmas shopping sales fall greater than that recorded last year. In 2015, the retraction was 2.8% on the previous year.
Despite the bad prognosis, in assessing the Economist at the São Paulo commercial Association (ACSP), Emilio Alfieri, this will not be the worst Christmas of the Real plan. According to data of the ACSP, which measures the volume of sales in the city of São Paulo, the main consumer market of the country, sales in December last year in the State capital fell 14.5% over the previous year. For this year, the prospect is 6% retraction. "The fall is losing speed."
In the first half of this month, there was a 7.2% decline in the movement of trade in relation to the same period in 2015. "It was a bigger drop than expected," says Alfieri, noting that November had closed with retraction of 2.2% compared to the previous year. The Economist points out that the scenario is hazy and that change can occur. "The big test will be starting tomorrow (today), when the payment of the second installment of the 13th salary."
Popular. Retailers of popular shopping streets are the only ones who still have prospects for extending the Christmas sales despite the recession. According to Claudia Urias, President of Univinco, which represents 4500 retailers throughout March 25 and 16 streets in the region, the local trade hopes to increase between 3% and 6% turnover this year compared to the previous one. On Saturday, the region received more than a million people. "
Even with the large flow of people, Claudia notes that average spending on purchases has been minor. This trend was observed until the wholesale sales, with 50% cut.