Anfavea expects 10% lower production

Worse production volume in 29 months, double-digit fall in sales, inventories are still above normal and elimination of jobs. The set exposed by figures released yesterday by the vehicle industry confirmed the deepening of the crisis in the sector, leading to Anfavea, the entity that houses the automakers installed in the country, reversing expectations before positive about the performance of the year.
Now estimates point to 5.4% drop in sales and 10% in production. At the beginning of the year, Anfavea expected close 2014 with growth of 1.1% in the formal license plates, while the goal for the production was high of 1.4%. Along with these numbers, the entity reported that exports of vehicles produced in Brazil should drop 29.1% in 2014.
After record sales in the first quarter, the market comes, since March, booking numbers increasingly weak. But Anfavea, before announcing its new forecasts, preferred to wait for the confirmation that the current discounts in the tax on industrialized products (IPI) will be kept until the end of the year, as well as the definition of the automotive agreement between Brazil and Argentina.
Although they are negative, the projections of the entity from the premise that the sector will initiate a reaction in the second half, even though a pace insufficient to "Save" the end result of the year. The calculations point to growth of 14.3% and sales of 13.2% of production in the second half of 2014, compared to volumes accumulated in the first six months.
In addition to the seasonal factor-historically, the second half is more heated, these predictions hold up, especially, a more favourable trade calendar. Without stoppages in games of the Brazilian team at the World Cup and with fewer holidays, the second half of the year, says the entity, will have eight more days of sale in relation to the first.
"About 50% of this growth will come from the fact that we have more business days," said Luiz Moan, President of Anfavea, during press conference reporters to present the results of June. Last month, as expected, the start of the World Cup-by reducing the flow of consumers at dealerships, as well as the hours or days of operation of stores-affected vehicle sales, which were 17.3% below the volume of June 2013. With that, the fall of the licensing year to date, which was at 5.5% in may, rose to 7.6% at the end of June.
Similarly, the production of vehicles fell 33.3% in relation to the volume of a year earlier, adding 215.9 thousand units in June-lowest volume since January 2012, when 210.6 million vehicles came out of the factories. While some automakers gave collective vacations, other workers in the days off were of Brazilian national team games, among the measures to adapt the production to a smaller market. In the first half, the national industry of vehicles produced 16.8% less than in the same period in 2013.
Even so, automakers haven't been able to normalize the stocks, whose level is sufficient for 45 days of sale, above the 41 days of a month ago.
Moan said yesterday that the Outlook would be even more negative if the Government had resumed, as was predicted, the recovery of full car aliquots IPI this month. In this case, it's estimated, the fall in sales in 2014 could reach 10%, double the new projection.
Asked about the compensation offered by automakers to convince the Government holding aliquots of IPI, Moan said that the sector remains committed to maintenance of jobs, signed in May of 2012, when the tribute was reduced to stimulate sales. But that, he said, does not prevent companies from reducing excess workforce via voluntary redundancy programmes or not renewing temporary contracts.
Since January, 5.5 thousand jobs have already been eliminated in Brazilian automakers. This number raises a debate on mechanisms more flexible and less costly employment protection, such as the use of unemployment insurance to pay for part of the time not worked in times of crisis.
Along the lines of German protection system, the proposal, advocated by automakers and auto parts manufacturers, also has the sympathy of most of the unions. "The measures taken so far, as the reduction in the IPI, palliative and attack the not are problem", says Miguel Torres, President of the Força Sindical, commenting on layoffs in the sector. According to him, the cuts in automotive chain, including auto parts factories, already comes close to 10 thousand vacancies this year.