Market reduces inflation and high GDP estimates to 2019 and 2020

Financial market analysts reduced the inflation estimate to 2019 and 2020, and also began to predict a smaller expansion of the Brazilian economy in these two years. The projections are listed in the market newsletter known as the "Focus" report, released on Monday (26) by the Central Bank (BC). The report is a result of a survey made last week with more than 100 financial institutions. According to the institution, financial market analysts lowered the inflation estimate for this year from 3.71% to 3.65%. It was the third fall followed by the indicator. With this, the expectation of market inflation for 2019 follows below the central target, of 4.25%. The tolerance range of the target system varies from 2.75% to 5.75%. The inflation target is fixed by the National Monetary Council (CMN). To achieve this, the Central bank raises or lowers the basic interest rate of the economy (Selic). For 2020, the financial market lowered the inflation estimate from 3.90% to 3.85%. Next year, the central inflation target is 4% and will have been officially fulfilled if the IPCA oscillating between 2.5% and 5.5%. Gdp For this year, the GDP high estimate declined from 0.83% to 0.80%. For 2020, GDP growth forecast increased from 2.2% to 2.1%. The GDP is the sum of all goods and services made in the country, regardless of the nationality of those who produce them, and serves to measure the behavior of the Brazilian economy. For 2019, the Central bank's forecast is a 0.8% high, and the Ministry of Economy is a 0.81% growth. Other estimates Interest rate-the market kept at 5% per year the forecast for the Selic rate at the end of 2019. Currently, the interest rate is at 6% per year. With this, the market continues to predict a drop in interest this year. For the end of 2020, the forecast fell from 5.50% to 5.25% per year. In this way, analysts continue to estimate interest rates in the next year. Dollar-the projection of the financial market for the exchange rate at the end of 2019 rose from R $3.78 to R $3.80 per dollar. For the closing of 2020, it remained at R $3.81 per dollar. Trade balance-for the balance of the trade balance (result of total exports minus imports), the projection in 2019 advanced from US $52 billion to US $52.85 billion of positive result. For next year, the market experts ' estimate rose from US $48 billion to $49 billion. Foreign investment-The forecast of the report for the entry of foreign direct investments in Brazil, in 2019, was stable at US $85 billion. For 2020, analysts ' estimates declined from US $84.68 billion to US $84.36 billion.