Retailer adjusts stock in anticipation of the resumption of consumption in Southeast

After two consecutive years of bitter recession, the retail sector in the Southeast, with the exception of Rio de Janeiro, rehearses gradual resumption on adequacy of inventory levels in 2018. Factors such as inflation below the target, lower interest rates and the reheating of the economy have sustained the bullish movement. According to the survey conducted by Fecomercio-SP, in February 2018, the share of entrepreneurs who consider their appropriate stocks reached 56%, up 7.9 percentage points (p.p.) about a year before. Compared to January, the percentage of respondents who considered the excessive volume of goods fell 3.6 percentage points, going to 28.2% in February; while 14.4% rated their stockpiles below the demand, indentation of 0.7 percentage points on the same basis of comparison. Until the first half of this year, the estimate of the entity is that 60% of retailers consider appropriate your stocks-percentage registered only in January 2014. "The mood in a bad mood on the market, the trend is for a moderate mood in retail," says Fecomercio-SP specialist, Fábio Pina. According to him, a seasonal factor will also help retailers of durable goods. "The World Cup will be a bellwether for the electronics stores," says Pina, noting that major sporting events heat up sales of televisions. In a move similar to that described by Pina, Gerson Eugênio, commercial Director of São Paulo De Meo machinery and tools, plans to raise up to 30% in the stock this year. After concentrating their investments in the infrastructure of the company, the Executive stated that the expansion of the stocks returned to the business plans this year. "We need to expand our storage capacity to meet emergency demands." Optimism Miner study of Fecomercio-MG, done in December shows that Minas Gerais was the State with the highest growth in sales volume in the Southeast: 5% on a year earlier. Then are São Paulo (1.5%), Rio de Janeiro (-1.9%) and Holy Spirit (-2.3%). "For 2018, there is favourable perspective of the entrepreneur, based on improving economic environment as a whole", says the expert, Guilherme Almeida. It indicates the decline of interest in trade – currently at 5.40% per month – and the IPCA of 2.95%, registering your 2017 lowest level since 1998, as factors that underpin the positive movement. Among the miners, the share of entrepreneurs with adequate stock was 54% in February; those with excess goods were 29.29% and the percentage of businesses with insufficient storage of products was of 17.65%. The expert says that while retail indicators point optimism, including electoral settings throughout the year, the effects of the crisis remain in the industry. Aligned to this cautious perspective, Soha Froes, Director of is Department store clothing Plural, in Belo Horizonte. According to the Manager, because of the crisis, sales retreated and isn't the best moment to raise the stocks. "Copa and Election Year is not the best time to invest, because there are many uncertainties," says Soha, who claims to be with the proper stock to little current demand. In the Holy Spirit, according to the Fercomércio-ES, in the cumulative 12 months until February, the percentage of entrepreneurs with adequate stock sum 60%. Those who classify the amount of excessive products was 23.6%; and, finally, the number of retailers with goods volume lower than the demand was 11.9%. To the Coordinator of the Taste/FIA, Claudio Felisoni, the "discomfort" in the economic backdrop is attenuated along 2018 with electoral settings. On the other hand, he says, the real family income of the consumer towards a gradual growth by falling inflation and interest rates. Point out the curve in Rio de Janeiro, the scenario is still "very uncertain and difficult, with no prospect of resumption in sales in all retail segments," nailed the Mayor of store managers of Rio de Janeiro (CDLRio), Aldo Gonçalves. Gautam claims, different from the "rest of Brazil", the fact that River face a serious financial crisis, public security and a situation of "urban disorder contributes to intensify the falls in the sector. According to a survey made by the entity in the last 12 months through February, the sectors that showed greater were the (-5.2%), optical (-4.8%), clothing (-4.3%), electrical appliances (-3.6%), textiles (-1.3%) and footwear (-0.3%). There was no disclosure of the appropriateness of the figures retail stocks.