Logistics parks of São Paulo expect end the year with a slight high

São Paulo-With negative result in the first quarter of 2017, the market of logistics parks paulista must still see hard months ahead. Even far from pre-crisis levels recover, the prediction of the consultancy Colliers is that the sector can close the year with results slightly exceeding 2016 because of the reduction of releases.
According to the latest report from Colliers International Brazil market logistics parks of high standard in the State had net absorption (the relationship between spaces rented and returned) denial of 22000 square meters (m ²) in the first three months of the year. In other words, the returns were superior to contraction of spaces. Currently, the result of the region represents 62% of the national market.
To the Vice President of Colliers, Paula Casarini, in the second quarter it is possible that the market may still have a small decrease of prices and keep tight absorption levels. "But in the second half our estimate is that the search for rental is better than in the first half-as occurred in 2016-and the market close with a slightly better absorption than last year," he says.
According to the Executive, it is still early to predict the market closure, but if the behavior is the same as 2016, net absorption should terminate in an average of 200,000 m ², close to last year''s result of 196,000 m ². Even so, this rate in the sector should be at levels close to 30%. Today, the average level considered comfortable-when does not benefit the owner or tenant-revolves around 9% and 12%.
Current time
"But this is a momentary forecast. You have to wait a little more to learn. Sometimes the market can react better than we expect, "complements the Logistics Manager of Colliers, Eduardo Gabriel. For now, the only positive aspect safer is a smaller volume of inventory will be released.
According to the consultancy, by the end of the year will be delivered between 380,000 m ², and 420,000 m ² of logistics parks, 25000 m ² of which have already been placed on the market in the first quarter of the year. Currently, the market is with a total of 7,822,000 square meters of inventory. "If the volume of deliveries to be on this landing will help", emphasizes Gabriel, of Colliers. Date of 2016, the State of São Paulo had an increase of inventory of about 650,000 meters.
Promising regions
According to the survey of the Colliers, the cities of Jundiaí and Campinas are what showed best results in net absorption during the first quarter, 25000 square meters (m ²) and 14000 m ², respectively. At the other end, Guarulhos (-35000 m ²), Cajamar (-14000 m ²) and Piracicaba (-17000 m ²) were the cities with lower results.
For Eduardo Gabriel, of Colliers, the difference in outcome between the regions related to the speed of reaction of the owners in the commercial flexibility. "Jundiaí and Campinas was the result of adjustments faster. Already Guarulhos and Cajamar, for example, where prices and orders were bigger lost much space, "he says.
In the first quarter of 2017, the average lease was in R $19 m ²/month-the same average of 2016. In 2015, this indicator was R $20 m ²/month.
The trend is that the strategy of flexible commercial negotiation in logistics parks remains to 2017. "We realize that being done more creatively. Before it was just early entry and today we talk about early entry and lack ", concludes the Executive of Colliers.