Climate back to affect the production of beans and oil prices climb

Hardly bean prices will rise this year to alarming levels observed in 2016. But, contrary to what was expected, the market will go back to normal either, since climate problems are again affecting the offer, albeit in less intensity than last harvest.
Cold and frost in Paraná did the beans up 50% in Rio last week and 115% in the month in Sao Paulo. The 60-pound bag is being negotiated by R $350, still far from the peak of R $500 2015/16 cycle, but Marcelo Lüders, Correpar analyst and President of the Ibrafe (Brazilian Institute of beans and Pulses), believes that new highs may occur.
Frosts have decreased the productivity of crops grain, Parana and the second crop, which should be happening, is virtually paralyzed because of the rains. "We thought the lightning doesn''t fall twice in the same place, but we were wrong," says Lüders.
Parana leads the national production in the second crop of beans (three in total). Planting in the State focuses between February and March, while the harvest is held between May and July. "The Paraná is the only State able to meet brazilian demand during this period," he says.
In addition to the drop in productivity and higher fungal diseases infestation, moisture makes the beans wrinkled, ugly and with less flavor. "In the State of Paraná, 16% of crops are in terrible condition," says Jonathan pine, an analyst at Vintages & market, citing Overall data (Department of Rural Economy) of the Secretariat of State Supply.
"It''s still hard to size the losses, but it is estimated that between 10% can reach and 15%", says Lüders. Conab (national supply company) provides for harvesting 624,000 tons of Carpenter in the second harvest, when 800,000 would be necessary to meet demand.
Minas Gerais, another major producer of beans, but mostly in the summer (first harvest) also returned to face climate problems. "Without rainfall, planting was delayed in rain-fed areas and some producers did not sow the grain. And in irrigated areas, with less water available, many centers have not been fired, "says Lüders.
With the problem of mines, the Ibrafe calculated that the first crop of carioca bean 780,000 tons went into in the country, less than estimated the Conab (858,000). Stocks are calculated at 600,000 tons, less than the 800,000 needed to harvest of second harvest take pace.
Lüders estimates that the country has only 500,000 tons of carioca beans in stock until the third harvest, which will begin to be harvested in October. "It is exactly half the demand." The production of the third crop is estimated at 640,000 tonnes, in line with the volume of recent years, since the rains benefit crops in Minas Gerais, Goiás and Bahia.
Taking into account the three harvests, the brazilian production of beans is estimated by Conab on 3,330,000 tons in 2016/17, being the Grand 2,120,000 carioca. But the blanket is short, since the Brazil consumes nearly 2,600,000 tonnes per year of the carioca. "Theoretically, with the current crop we can resume the level of 2015. But this time, we will have more Cowpea and black, and so don''t answer the national taste ".
The Brazilian per capita consumption of all varieties of beans is estimated at 17 pounds per year. But in 2016/17, the domestic offer available should be around 14 kilos per inhabitant. In 2015/16, the Ibrafe, the consumption per captures stayed at 13 pounds.
To resolve the issue, Lüders argues that the Government reduce the 10% tax on imports from countries outside the Mercosur, as was done in mid-2016. "Pleiteamos Not it yet due to the troubled period of national policy," he says. He claims that there are beans available in the USA and Mexico and that, as these countries have complementary to Brazilian agricultural calendars, the Exchange could be deepened.