Interest and dollar falls will favor the sale of durable goods still in 2016

São Paulo-0.25 percentage point reduction in the Selic rate-announced yesterday by the Central Bank-and the fall of the dollar since January can help retailers to convert more sales this year. For experts, the two factors form an attractive backdrop to the consumer already resulting in reduced interest payments and fall in prices.
In spite of improving the business environment and stimulate a feeling of upturn, both the fall of 27.5% of the dollar in 10 months, as reducing the Selic must directly impact the retail only in 2017. "I don''t believe that [the fall of Selic] can have an impact for Black Friday or Christmas. But she generates optimism in the consumer market, though still pass by the recession. News that interest rates are falling help to encourage a greater push to the customer at the time of purchase, "says the CEO of E-bit, Pedro Guasti.
The company evaluates each month via an index in partnership with Fipe and the Rocket site, the influences of inflation and prices of the dollar and the interest rate on retail prices online.
In the first half of this year, for example, according to the index, the variation of prices in the e-commerce builds up a high of 2.83%, slightly less than the variation of 3.73% observed in the same period of the year passing, due mostly to the lower exchange rate pressure on prices of imported products and components, such as consumer electronics and mobile phones. The rate of American currency rose from a level of R$ 4.03, in the early days of January this year, to R$ 3.16, after the closure of the Exchange session yesterday (19). "With the exception of the cost with shipping, the prices of the main items sold on e-commerce are quite affected by the dollar. The fall in the currency has been reflected, at least in this moment, in moderation in inflation. It is a trend that should continue over the next few months, "says Guasti.
In September, the Index price index/Rocket revealed high prices of 4.08% compared to the same period last year, representing the lowest level of monthly advance since October 2015.
Positive wave
Even without impacting forecast commodity prices this year, reducing the Selic rate should inject spirit also in retailers, which can generate a wave of optimism for Christmas.
"Before the fall, inventory replacement costs and the relevant investments this movement gives confidence to entrepreneurs to apply the working capital in products, rather than maintain the values invested in the banks," says retail expert and CEO of GS & AGR Consultants, Ana Paula Tozzi.
For her, this initiative should generate a greater amount of promotions, but only after retailers actualize their replacements prices, especially those with dollarized, updated by exchange rate and interest to the official indexes.
In addition, the Executive tells that the 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic gives more room for customers to increase spending in trade, since the debts that impact the household budget may be lower with the shrinkage of the basic interest rate.
"The level of indebtedness of households in Brazil is among the highest of the last amos and the Selic reduction can help alleviate this burden on the budget, which can make room in the accounts so that people can buy more" indicates Tozzi.
Domino effect
The retail segments that should start to feel the first effects of the reduction should be the focus in consumer goods, such as food, medicine and hygiene.
In addition, explains Tozzi, the falling dollar and the decrease of the Selic rate will also be important for retailers improve your profit margins, which were pressed in fight over price.
This price war, including, has already resulted in lower prices for the final consumer: according to a study from GfK, the prices of smartphones in the country shrank, on average, 14% between January and August, according to the dollar. Among the TVs, the fall average was 10%, while the notebooks presented the largest retraction: 18% (see table beside)
This fall in prices, to the President of the São Paulo commercial Association (ACSP), Alencar Burti, in addition to cutting the Selic rate should be the first step of what he called the "cycle of reduction". "We hope that is the beginning of a cycle of reduction of interest rates, which are still in high level," says Burti. According to GfK, sales of durable goods, semi-durable goods and electronics are highly linked to the condition of interest, since 52% of consumers products plots, at least eight times.