Markestrat consultancy study released by the National Association of exporters of Citrus juices (CitrusBR) points out that the orange juice market shrank 15.2% between 2004 and 2014, to 2.412 million tons per year to 2.042 million annual tons of concentrated and frozen drink (FCOJ) equivalent. The annual difference of 370 million pounds of FCOJ, corresponds to 92.5 million boxes (40.8 kilograms) of orange that ceased to be consumed in the form of juice just last year.
The fall was pulled by the market of the United States. Were 392 000 tonnes less between 2004 and 2014, to 1.080 million tons to 688 thousand tons per year. "The problem for Brazil was not only greater because during this period the supply of fruit in Florida decreased dramatically (by the greening) and the Americans still matter more juice from Brazil," explained Ibiapaba Netto, Executive Director of CitrusBR. In crop year 2014/2015, closed in June, shipments to the United States increased by 14% compared with the same previous period, from 213,294 tons to 243,734 tons.
If considered the gradual reduction of world consumption since 2004, the accumulated fall was of 1.8 million tons, or 450 million boxes of oranges. The volume of the fruit is more than one and a half the crop of around 2015/2016 in the commercial park of Brazil citrícola, 279 million boxes. The study was based on data from Tetra Pak systems Compass, Euromonitor, Planet Retail and the United States Department of agriculture (USDA) and assessed the 40 major markets representing 99% of the world consumption.
In addition to the 25% indentation in the North American market (United States and Canada), Europe's market is down 15% and Oceania 5% between the periods evaluated. To make up for the fall, the Asian market has advanced 23%; Latin America grew 85% and the Middle East, 88%. The sum of the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) plus the Mexico, the increase in consumption was 66%, same percentage of pullback from the rest of the world.
"The problem is that same as these advances are significant percentage point of view, the amount of juice is still very small in emerging countries," Netto. In the period from 2004 to 2014, the annual consumption of the Brics plus Mexico jumped from 175 thousand tons to 293 thousand tons. Meanwhile, in the same space of time, the rest of the world fell to 2.297 billion tons to 1.749 million tons.
"Even now the Brics ' consumption more Mexico is only 16% of the rest of the world consumes. We need to remember that Europe takes 70% of our production and the United States, 21%, "explained Netto. The Brazil responds for about 57% of production and 81% of international trade in orange juice.
According to CitrusBR, two outputs are studied for the fall of world consumption. The first is a marketing project in partnership with the European fruit juice Association (AIJN, the acronym in French) to boost sales in the foreign market. As the project depends on the adhesion of the businesses that buy Brazilian juice, yet no deadline for the project get off the streets.
The second option is the elimination in the final price of orange juice, with the retail exemption of PIS/Cofins and recall the tax on circulation of goods and services (ICMS) in Brazil, which could generate an additional demand of about 50 million cases each year just to meet the Orange internal market. "We know that the moment is complicated because of the fiscal adjustment, but we have talked to the Government and we believe that, at the right time, we can get this benefit," concluded Netto
DCI
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