Expected market retreat in quarterly profit of Natura

Natura, the country's largest manufacturer of cosmetics, tends to repeat in the third quarter the weak sales performance in the domestic operation, although international business allow to keep the advance of revenue. Already the dollar costs and the elevation of taxes must result in kickback of margins and profits, according to the consensus
of six houses of analysis found by the value
The company releases third-quarter balance sheet today, after the closing of the trading floor, and teleconference with analysts tomorrow.
The average of projections of Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, BTG Pactual Research, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Banco Votorantim indicates net income of r $ 181,7 million from July to September, corresponding to 15.5% indent before the $ 215 million from the third quarter of 2014.
The appreciation of the dollar against the real should reduce gross margin at 0.9 percentage point, from 70.9% to 70%, according to the average estimate of Credit Suisse, Banco Votorantim and BTG Pactual. The comparison involves third quarter of 2014 and 2015.
The increase in General and administrative expenses, in turn, must subtract 2.2 percentage points to 20.8% Ebitda margin, according to the consensus of the six institutions.
The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) medium designed by six banks sum R $ 413,7 million, a fall of 3.1% compared with a year earlier.
The reduction of capital investments and the increase in working capital must be the main highlight of the quarter, says the team of BTG Pactual. The improvement of the indicators yielded compliments to the company in the second quarter.
The consensus of analysts is of net revenues of r $ 1.99 billion in the three months to September, up 6.4 percent compared with the same period in 2014. "Despite some initiatives to revive revenue growth (such as the sale of the brand I am in some pharmacies, more sophistication in credit and more product-oriented marketing) are in the right direction, probably will not be enough to make a difference, considering the difficult macro setting and competitive," says Credit Suisse's team.
The international operation must maintain strong growth and take advantage of the exchange rate variation.