Keeps beer production recovery and increases 14.75%

Brewing in Brazil advanced 14.75% in May compared to the previous year, according to the control System for the production of beverages (Sicobe), the internal revenue service. This is the fourth month of consecutive high production in the sector, benefited this year by high temperatures and the World Cup.
The performance is strong, but occurs on a low comparison base. Is that the production of beers is recovering after shrinking 2 percent in 2013, which marked the first downturn in the industry in four years.
So far, only the month of January, fell 2.4%, as compared to the same period in 2013. With the late Carnival, March performance was a record year, with 23.74% advance in comparison with the same period in 2013.
Catarina Pedrosa, an analyst who follows the roles of Ambev in Banco Espírito Santo (BES), says it's possible that the first and the second quarter to be stronger in 2014, when it traditionally occurs in the first and fourth. "Beyond [the expectation] World Cup, we had a very hot summer and so far the weather remains dry," he said.
Despite the improvement in performance, there are uncertainties in the sector due to the changes in the taxation of cold drinks, category that includes beer and soft drinks.
The federal Government's decision to postpone for September tax increases for the sector-after an unexpected announcement that should increase before the World Cup, did not reduce the impression of analysts and investors that the tax scenario ahead is hazy.
Representatives of manufacturers of beverages and bars and restaurants have said that dialogue with the Government "evolved", there is openness to elaborate a "new system of taxation" for the sector and that it would be beneficial to "both sides".
The companies ' argument is that the current system has negative impacts on inflation. In addition, the Government could achieve the same revenue with the increase of the volumes of the industry, which would not need to raise their prices.
But this speech is not new, however. Has always been the industry argument to plead reduction-or at least not increase taxes.
The question now is whether the Government really has to agree with this view and if you would be willing to forgo short-term revenue. After all, the weight of the drinks in the IPCA is not that big-0.71% and 0.39% soda beer-and there is a growing pressure of entities who preach the evils of consumption of these products.
A working group was formed by representatives of the companies and the Government and must present a proposal for a new model of industry taxation. Concrete, so far, there is only the Government's decision to pay the increase in September in three times. The visibility of this policy [of taxation in the industry] remains limited, "said Bank Of America Merrill Lynch (BofA), in a recent report.
In may, there were also high in the production of soft drinks, which grew 3% in comparison with the same period in 2013. In April, production had retreated 2.8 percent.