Supermarkets sales recover, but see this year with caution

After having registered in 2012 the worst performance by volume sold in supermarkets over the past five years, the sector registered a resumption in the rhythm in 2013, reported yesterday the Brazilian supermarket Association (Abras). With that, the stores are back to achieve a quantity of items sold just above the established three years ago, in 2011. The low comparison base helps to explain the result. Is not something to celebrate, but the scenery makes room for a larger recovery in volume in 2014-the best thermometer of domestic demand.
In 2013, the repique inflationary in the first half of the year hurt the market, but the exemption from federal taxes the basic basket gave new impetus, leading to expansion of 0.8% in volume sold about 2012, reports open, in research with Nielsen. In 2012, was decrease of 0.3% in the quantity sold, the worst number in the series, started in 2009. In previous years, the volume went up: 3.2% (2009), 6.7% (2010) and 1.8% (2011).
"It's not a fee [high of 0.8%] to celebrate, but it's not something so weak. The retail sector has been growing continuously since 2008. There are two or three years we grow 6%, 7%. This number of 2013 is something positive in the face of adverse scenario, "said Nielsen's Service Manager, Fábio Gomes. "We have to consider that in 2013, the beverage market slowed. If you delete this sector, the high would be greater, "said Sussumu Honda, President of the Advisory Board of the Association.
With the shy high in volume, profitability can be achieved through high prices (which extends net revenue and improves the balance sheets), by cutting costs and efficiency gains.
Nielsen and Open does not have growth forecast for the volume sold in 2014. "Must be greater than 1%, but still you can't put a percentage," said Gomes.
In relation to actual sales of supermarkets, the entity provides for loss in the pace of expansion in 2014, with high estimate of 3% this year. Last year it was acute elevation of 5.36% actual sales (deflated by the IPCA). That is, the actual sale grew by over 5%, and the volume went up 0.8% in 2013. The two surveys, sales in value and volume, have different data sources (the Open look his associates to reach the billing and the Nielsen fleshes out the volume in stores). In addition, the discrepancy in rates can also occur when consumers purchase higher priced items.
Nielsen's research confirmed that small supermarkets, with one of the four boxes, performed better in 2013, with a high of 3.1% in volume sold. Stores with five to nine boxes had increased 2%. In hypermarkets, with 20 or more boxes, was decrease of 2.6%, the worst performance. "Sales of hypermarkets fall for five or six years as a reflection of changing customer buying behavior," said Gomes.