New highs forecast for wheat-derived

Wheat prices in Brazil rose by more than 40% in 2013 and pressured hard derivatives prices. Wheat flour was 47% more expensive, French bread, 14%, and the masses, 20%. These items, which represent together 2.2% of Brazilian families, spending should continue in high in 2014, in front of a new wave of scarcity of cereal MERCOSUR, Brazil's main supplier.
The participation of wheat-derived indices of inflation grew last year. Pasta, flour, biscuits and breads represented 5.68% of Weekly consumer price index (CPI-S), measured from Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), which was 5.63% in 2013. The previous year, such participation in IPC-S had been of 3.8% and the index will be at 5.74 percent.
According to data compiled by Brazilian wheat industry Association (Abitrigo), the price of domestic cereal in 2013, on average, 43.5%, higher than in 2012, with a ton to $ 772. Consequently, the increase was passed in jail, for the prices of flour and other derivatives.
The association representing the industries of noodles and bread industrialized, the Abima, estimates that the readjustment of the segment in 2013 has been 20%. "The wheat flour has a weight of 60% to 70% in the total cost of the masses," explains the President of Abima, Claudius Zanão.
The readjustment in French bread also stayed behind. Was in 2013, 14%, almost double the registered in 2012, of 7.7%, according to data released by Abitrigo based on the index of FGV.
The weight of wheat derivatives on income of families, of 2.2%, is relatively important, says economist of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre/FGV), André Braz. "With payment of condo, for example, families spend 2.4% of their income," compares the Economist.
But the rising prices of the masses and industrialized breads, for example, caused inhibition of consumption. "Either we grew up. There was a degree of stability, "says the President of Abima. Zanão believes that, despite the high prices of the masses are still affordable compared to other classes of food products. The leader of the Abima doesn't believe wheat prices-and not of derivatives-in 2014. "The MERCOSUR offer will still be scarce. The best case scenario, is maintenance of current prices, which are already at a high level, "says Zanão.
Rising wheat prices intensified in 2012 with the breaking of the harvest of cereal in Brazil and a systemic decrease in argentina production has already reached 16 million tons per year and that a few years ago no more than 10 million tons.
With this, in 2013, the Brazil, which consumes per year 11 million tons of cereal, had to buy from outside the Mercosur most of its need to import, which is on the order of 6 million tons per year. Last year, the Brazilian Mills imported 6.6 million tons of wheat, 3 million of the United States, according to Secex/MDIC.
For the moment, is of American origin what remains of wheat stock in the country's mills, says the President of the wheat industry Union of São Paulo (Sindustrigo-SP), Christian Saigh.
With the blurring of Argentina on the release date of the shipments of grain, the Brazilian Mills study import 50 million tons of grain from Uruguay. The measure must be taken in the next few weeks so there is time for cargo coming to Brazil until February, when they end the American wheat stocks.
Second Saigh, a meeting which should have been held on Tuesday in Argentina to set the export release date was postponed to next Monday, March 13.
Around 750 thousand tons of Argentine wheat have already been purchased by the Brazilian Mills, out of a total of 1.5 million tonnes that must be released for export, according to Saigh. "The sellers had already licensed to sell the wheat. Now lack the permission to get you ".