Anfavea expects high of 1.1% in sales this year

Stock of 2013 results released yesterday by Anfavea, the entity that houses the automakers installed in the country confirmed the first drop in vehicle sales in ten years, but, on the other hand, the best production in history (see table beside). Exports, in values, were also a record, amounting to US $ 16,57 billion, in numbers that still include the agricultural machinery sector.
The mismatch between the positive performance of production and the negative of the market is due to the replacement of imported cars by nationals-given the restrictions on imports of new automotive policy, together with the resumption in exports to Argentina, fate of eight out of ten cars shipped in Brazil.
In 2014, it is expected that the two movements do not recur with the same intensity, one of the reasons why the Anfavea was more cautious this time to trace the projections for the year. The estimates, however, indicate new record not only for production but also for sales, which fell almost 1 percent in 2013.
The numbers of the designs for 2014 1.1% growth in sales and of 0.7% in the production. If confirmed, the industry will arrive in December with 3.81 million licensed vehicles and 3.77 million produced. Already in exports, the Anfavea expects an improvement of 2.1% in 2014, to 575 thousand units shipped.
These goals indicate a recovery in domestic consumption, but also a more moderate developments in production and export volumes, which rose 9.9 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively, last year.
For the purposes of calculating estimates, were considered positive aspects, as an economic growth of 2.5%, and negative, such as the withdrawal of part of the discounts in the tax on industrialized products (IPI).
On the other hand, the Anfavea took into account an anticipated 5% advance in credit grants, as well as the continued expansion of sales of trucks, also of around 5%. On the other hand, considered the possibility of restrictions on Argentine imports, the pressure on prices provoked by mandating airbags and antilock brakes on all cars, plus the biggest competition of imported, favored by most hearty import quotas obtained by brands that have decided to invest in factories in Brazil.
Commenting on the projections, Luiz Moan, President of the Association of automakers, complained the holidays and its bridges, which make it more insignificant commercial calendar of automakers. "If you're going to see, all holiday falls on a Thursday or Tuesday," quipped the Executive. Strictly speaking, 2014 will have the same number of working days of 2013. However, there is an expectation that the achievement of the FIFA World Cup ™ reduce the flow to consumers at dealerships on the days of games.
Last year, sales of vehicles, including trucks and buses, fell 0.9% to 3.77 million units, which breaks a string of nine consecutive years of growth that began in 2004. Production closed 3.74 million vehicles in 2013, extending the record that had already been secured in the November result.
The positive news on the swing released yesterday by Anfavea was the appropriateness of industry stocks, which get pressure against this year's production. With the December layoffs, the volume of vehicles stopped on the patios returned to a whirl of 30 days, after reaching 42 days in November.