High in the price of food reaches 34% on year

Although the Country reap a record crop this year 185 million tons of grain, food prices have been the main focus of inflationary pressure in the last 12 months. Going forward, the behavior of the prices of tomatoes, potatoes, rice and beans will be the faithful of the scale in the decision of the Central Bank (BC) of increasing basic interest rates so that inflation does not exceed the ceiling of the 6.5% target set for this year.
In 12 months up to March, consumer food prices inflation in General took off and soared more than 30 percent. While the consumer price index (IPCA) rose 6.43% -15 until March, the prices of fruits, vegetables and legumes have accumulated high of 33.36% and those of cereals, including rice and beans, 34.09%, reveals a study by economists at the University of São Paulo (USP), Heron do Carmo and Jackson Rawat. They used the data of the IPCA-15, a preview of the IPCA, the benchmark index for the system of inflation targeting.
In the case of food semi-finished items and industrialized, high was also in double figures in the same period, from 16.50% and 11.44%, respectively. Already prices of private services, which vary according to the market, except those governed by contacts, soared 8.82% in 12 months up to March.
"We can have an improvement in inflation of food because of the supersafra, but there is an important piece of the inflation, which meets domestic consumption cereals, vegetables, fruits, that is at the mercy of the weather," says Heron. Only the tomatoes more than doubled in price in the last 12 months, with a high of 105.87%. The trajectory of prices of other foods was similar. Potatoes, for example, was 86.51% more expensive in 12 months up to March, the cassava flour rose 140.57% and onion, 58.83%.
Heron explains that what causes the damage in the inflation index is the size of the variation in prices of those products, not the weight they have in isolation in indicator. In any case, the food and drink group responded last month by 24.3% of IPCA. Of this total, food at home, where are computed spending on ingredients for the preparation of meals, represented 16% and food outside the home replied by the difference (8.26%).
Double
Soy and corn export crops and basically with indirect effects on domestic supplies of meat, because they are used as animal feed, respond in this year by 70% of the crop. The record production is being sustained by soy, whose crop grew 23.6 percent this year, according to the national Supply Company (Conab). In the case of maize and rice, the rise in production was 4.36% and 3.9%. Already in the first crop bean, which is in the process of harvesting, there are nearly 6 percent drop in production in relation to the previous harvest.
For the RC Consultores consulting firm partner, Fabio Silveira, the supersafra is already helping to hold down inflation. He notes that wholesale prices, food both quoted in the international market, such as soybeans, corn, coffee, sugar, as those geared to domestic consumption, such as rice and beans, are decelerating at wholesale. In addition, the recent exemption of eight basic basket product groups should help to alleviate prices.
"Project for this year a 5.5% and feeding of IPCA will be around 6%. The food will return very price going forward, because food inflation is at 12%. "
"Looking forward, we expect a major revolution in food prices," said Elson Teles, an economist at Itaú Unibanco. The information is the newspaper O Estado de s. Paulo.