Pulled by vehicles, activity also rises in most sectors

The good result expected for January industrial production with high estimated between 1% and 2% in relation to December on seasonal adjustment series-was quite influenced by the strong increase in the production of automobiles, but also economists see signs of growth a little more spread out. Moreover, analysts note that specific issues that affected negatively the start of 2011 now "conspire" in reverse. The production of trucks jumped in January and it is expected that the agricultural sector, which took 0.4 percentage point of GDP for the first quarter of 2012, now reap good harvests of soybeans and rice. The investment signals also seem to indicate recovery, as the expressive queries to the BANK at the end of last year.
Luis Otávio de Souza Leal, Chief Economist of the Bank, high strong Brazil ABC of industry in January, higher than the 1.5%, but does not believe that this momentum will be maintained in the coming months, as it is still a mystery what will be the reaction of the sales and production with the gradual recovery of the IPI tax rate for vehicles and white line. "Therefore, it is difficult to say that the January results will be extrapolated for the next few months, we will continue to see volatility, as occurred in the second half."
Still, Loyal, says the first quarter seems to have the most positive and the Economist outlines works with high estimate of 1% to the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter compared with the last three months of 2012. Specific issues that marred the performance early last year now can contribute positively. Is the case of the production of trucks, which retreated sharply in the first quarter of 2012, after the adoption of the Euro 5 standard engines, and has harmed the gross fixed Capital formation.
Only in January, the manufacture of such vehicles jumped 269.5% compared to January 2012 (because of the very low base of comparison), but the prospect is that the investment will rise in the first three months of this year. Lakhani points out that more positive numbers at the beginning of the year are even more important because they can help to reverse the negative atmosphere that has formed around the Brazilian economy.
Braulio Borges, Chief Economist of the LCA consulting, agrees. The Economist projected high of 0.7% of the Economic activity index of the Central Bank (IBC-Br) in January. For him, the shrinkage of 0.5% of the restricted retail sales in December was atypical and the thread must have to grow in the first month of this year. Helped by the positive contribution of the agricultural sector, the Economist says that the first quarter will show growth exceeding 4% in annual terms. "The timing of the recovery is a little late than imagined at the end of last year, but it is an encouraging news."
The Chief Economist of BB DTVM, Marcelo Arnosti, is also more optimistic. In part, he says, the most significant industrial sector high on the opening of the year can be a fix bad data from the end of 2012, when the activity was stable compared with November. But Arnosti also expects some reaction on investment, that will contribute to that in the first quarter of this year the industry has performed better than at the close of last year.
Alessandra Ribeiro, of Consulting Trends, hoping high of 1.6% in industrial production in January, estimates that there will be continuation of the industry upturn, but so much more gradual, with high monthly 0.4% on average of the production until December. Less optimistic forecasts for the year, Alessandra says that the consultancy's projection for the increase of production in 2013, of 3.2%, is already under low bias. "The car sector comes to pull the production of intermediate goods, but the following month for a return. For not being a high production, not generalized claims. "
In December, less than half of the industries surveyed by IBGE grew. The percentage of industries that increased its production in November was only 44.4%. For Daniel Moreli, Superintendent of Banco Indusval & Treasury Partners, the slice of these sectors can increase in January, with high above 1% of overall production, given that not signals, however, a more consistent recovery scenario for the industry.
"Given the strong may have occurred only because of bad indicators reversal of the end of the year and a recovery of stocks in the industry," says rock. He recalls that, before the expressive variations observed in the first month of the year, paying heavy vehicle flow and the dispatch of corrugated paper had retreated 0.8% and 1.5% between November and December, respectively, and had also shown bad behavior in November.
Another move that may be behind the greater production of January, in the evaluation of rock, is a process of recomposition of industry stocks, led by the automotive industry, which last year had reduced their inventories with the exemption of the IPI. In December, automakers were accumulating in the courtyards 51.5 thousand units, a number that has come to achieve 199.5 thousand vehicles in May last year, before the IPI reduction, according to series built by Trends based on data of Anfavea, an organization that brings together manufacturers in the country. When production increases only to adjust the level of stocks, says the analyst, very sharp variations usually do not show much breathtaking.