For analysts, Talay will grow less in 2014

The telcos will end 2013 with a less intense growth in number of subscribers and in revenue compared to last year. The fierce competition has contributed throughout the year to make tighter profit margins for most of them. For 2014, it is expected a weaker growth in the subscriber base and more modest gains in revenue-especially in the light of the fall of 25% on the value of the interconnection fee (VU-M), with consequent effects on profit margins. VU-M is a fee charged by the fixed telecommunications services companies when they connect to networks of mobile providers.
Still expected a tighter competition in the sectors of machine-to-machine connections, or M2M, and cable TV with the arrival of new competitors. The discussion around the output of Telefónica of Telco, Telecom Italia's parent, or the sale of TIM, will continue to attract investors ' attention.
The integrated consulting Trends estimates for next year a growth of 3.5% on mobile phone user base (269.9 million connections in October), a little below the increase designed to 2013, 4%. For fixed telephony, the expectation is for a fall of 1.7%, same content planned for this year, until October with 45 million hits. In the case of pay-TV, which grew 13 percent in the 12 months to October, to 17.7 million customers, the consultancy predicts a breakthrough of 18% in 2014.
"In terms of profitability, the scenario is challenging for operators next year. There is a tendency for pressure drop in services prices and strong competition among the telcos, "said Camila Saito, telecommunications analyst of trends. The analyst considered that the prices of fixed broadband services and mobile tend to fall, as what has been observed in voice services. As for the more sophisticated data services, Camila said this will require high investments in the expansion of optical fiber networks, which should help push the margins of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda).
Renato Pasquini, Manager of the telecommunications area of Frost Sullivan &, considers that the telcos will have to reach a balance in 2014 between revenue generation and need for investments. For him, the operators will be pressed by the 25% drop in the rate of interconnection and by the adoption by consumers of instant messaging services for free as a replacement to packages of torpedoes-two important sources of revenue for the sector.
"The telcos will tend to expand their portfolios, with mobile payment services, M2M communications, digital content offerings and partnerships," said Pasquini. The analyst predicts for the telecommunications market this year in revenue growth of 4.5%.
Credit Suisse projected for 2014 a small improvement in results of mobile operators who have shares in the Brazilian stock exchange (Telefonica/Vivo, TIM and Oi). For Vivo, the projection is a 6.6% higher Ebitda, to $ 11,423 billion and Ebitda margin increased to 23.3%, compared to 30.8% expected for this year.
The Bank estimates to TIM a 7.3% increase in Ebitda to r $ 5,691 billion, and 0.5 percentage point gain in Ebitda margin, to 27.2%. To Oi, the projection of 5.5% increase in Ebitda, to $ 8.7 billion, and 0.7 percentage point gain in Ebitda margin, to 29.3%. The estimates take into account improvements in results of Telefónica and of Hi. The Spanish because this year made relevant investments to expand its operation out of Sao Paulo, and Oi the prospect earnings by merging with Portugal Telecom.
Marcelo Torto, Chief Analyst of Active broker, estimates that in 2014 the operators will be experiencing a similar scenario to that of 2013. "It's a little complicated, because carriers will still need to maintain high investment to fulfill the goals of coverage for 3 g and 4 g," said bent.
Discussions about the sale of TIM generated discussions on the market about a slice of the company between the rivals, of course, Hi and Nextel-, or their acquisition by a new competitor. But these options are not considered appropriate by the Bank. "Carriers have reached almost the whole spectrum limit that may have in the country. To acquire the TIM, the carrier would have to get rid of spectrum licences, which increases the cost of the operation, "said Andrew Campbell, an analyst at Credit Suisse.
The alternative to allow a merger of carriers in the country would be the approval by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), of a new regulation that widen the limit of granting of spectrum frequency bands. Campbell said that bank staff had conversations with representatives of the Government recently. "Didn't notice any movement from the Government in order to change the boundaries of the spectrum," he said.
Spectrum limits are not the only regulatory theme at the focus of operators for 2014. The auction of the 700 MHz frequency range to expand 4 g networks in the country and the adoption of regulations to facilitate the installation of antennas in the municipalities are some of the themes that will be able to gain prominence in the telecommunications landscape in the first half.
Campbell believes that the Government seems committed to make the Ribbon auction 700 MHz in 2014. For the analyst, it is likely that the auction will be held in the first half of the year, before the period of presidential succession campaigns. In the view of the analyst, the use of 700 MHz band will allow a dynamic expansion of 4 g networks in the country, due to the possibility of faster deployment of antennas and the supply of the service in smaller cities.
Camila, Trends analyst, also believes that the ease of installation of fourth-generation infrastructure using the 700 MHz frequency band will allow a rapid advancement of technology deployment in the country next year. "In the case of range of 2.5 gigahertz (GHz), the legislation needs to be amended to facilitate the installation of antennas in the municipalities. The expectation is that this topic is covered by Anatel in 2014, "said Camila.