Anfavea maintains optimism and still believe in a tie with 2012

Balance sheet released yesterday by the automakers confirmed another drop in sales of new vehicles in Brazil, leading to Anfavea, an entity that represents the sector, designing only "technical draw" plates issued this year, compared to the record of 2012.
The Association's numbers showed that the automobile industry's production fell in November to the lowest level in nine months, with automakers adjusting once more the pace before the excess stock on the network.
In total, sales of vehicles among passenger cars, SUVs, light trucks and buses-reached 302.9 million units last month, a fall of 2.8 percent compared to the volume of a year earlier. In comparison with October, the Brazilian automotive market, the fourth largest in the world, showed retraction of 8.3%. Production in November, to 289.6 million vehicles, down 8% compared to the previous year and 10.7% compared to October. It was the lowest volume since February, when they were manufactured 243.7 million vehicles.
The Anfavea returned to assign the deceleration of the car market to the rigour of banks in credit release. Other than that, the results of the last month, said the principal, were harmed by the commercially, shorter calendar with three working days less compared to October, plus the uncertainty about the rules for the financing of capital goods from January, which affected sales of trucks.
After the fall of almost 1% of the licenses until November, Luiz Moan, President of Anfavea, said yesterday that, despite the negative forecasts of analysts, still expects volume for this year "slightly superior" to that of 2012, but without reaching the growth target of at least 1% traced by the entity. The trend, he said, is "technical draw".
The Association of automakers began the year projecting market growth in 2013 in the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, but had to revise its estimates with the downturn of plates issued from June. In September, the Association's projection was an evolution of the licensing of vehicles between 1% and 2%.
Despite declarations of Moan indicating that the sector will not come even to the floor of this estimate, the Anfavea officially maintained yesterday all their projections, which includes high of 11.9% to production.
In the first eleven months of this year, vehicle sales in Brazil fell 0.8% to 3.41 million units. Production, in the same period, up 11.8% and, despite the fall last month, has stuck with the record 3.5 million vehicles manufactured between January and November, more than the 3.42 million units of the entire year of 2011, which was the previous record.
To reverse the downward trend and closed 2013, at least at the same level of volumes of 2012, the industry will have to sell a number close to 389 thousand vehicles this month, volume unlikely in view of the downturn of the market. It would be a brand new for December, since the best result for the month was recorded in 2010, when 381.6 million vehicles were sold. But, for turning the tables, the industry plays the chips in consumer race to stores before the withdrawal of part of the discounts in the tax on industrialized products (IPI) at the turn of the year.
The mismatch between the market and the production, partly justified by the recovery in exports, caused excess inventories of vehicles, which closed last month showing cute equivalent to 41 days of sale. Ideally, according to experts, would be a level closest to 30 days, but the traditional layoffs in factories in the second half, the warming trend in sales this month, may contribute to adequate stocks.
Asked how it would evaluate the performance of the market, ranked as a year 2013 Moan good but not excellent. "It would be great if we had achieved our forecast," said the Executive.
Still, he recalled that 2013 will close or with record sales, or, at worst, with the second best result in history, only behind 2012, when 3.8 million vehicles were got their plates.
The Executive avoided anticipating estimates for 2014, which will only be disclosed by Anfavea next month. Moan, however, said he is optimistic about next year, noting that the World Cup must have positive impact on the renewal of the bus fleet in host cities and on orders for car rentals.