Production of beer back up 3.9% in September

Without clear signs of demand recovery, the beer industry in Brazil closed another month with retraction of volumes. After a retreated from 5.3% in August, the industry's production shrank 3.9 percent in September, compared to the previous year, according to preliminary data of the control System for the production of beverages (Sicobe), the internal revenue service.
The decline was 2.4% in the third quarter and 2% in consolidated the first nine months of the year. In relation to the August (with seasonal adjustment), the month of September has indentation of 0.8%.
Before the greater commitment of income of the population, who feel inflation and the weaker economy, the manufacturers of beer have faced difficulties to maintain the volumes since the beginning of the year. Only in January, June (with the Confederations Cup) and July production was high.
The problem affects the profitability of all large companies in the sector (Ambev, Brazil Kirin, Grupo Petrópolis and Heineken), that depend on scale to dilute fixed costs.
Pressed by rising costs dollarized, the sector achieved last week, postponing the increase in federal tax burden by about 2%-which was scheduled for October. With fundraising record in August, the Government agreed to postpone the lifting of taxes for "some time in 2014".
Carlos Brito, President of Anheuser-Busch InBev, controller of Ambev, thanked the "sensitivity" of the Government in relation to the sector of cold drinks (beer, water and soft drinks), in conversation with the Minister Guido Mantega in New York last week.
Brito said he believed that "this dialogue [with the Government] reiterates the purpose of the company to continue to invest record values in building capacity in the country," said Milton Seligman, AmBev Corporate Relations Director, who was at the meeting.
This year, Ambev is investing r $ 3 billion, a record for the company.
The improvement of the Government's dialogue has been singled out by analysts as a positive factor for Ambev. But, alone, the postponement of federal taxes does not guarantee a turnaround for the sector.
Sicobe data are a flag that the demand still retracted, but not necessarily break with the volume of sales that will be reported by Ambev in third quarter results. There is always the possibility of Ambev, with 69% market share, have been able to further expand their slice before competitors.
In addition, the difference between the Sicobe data (production), and Ambev (sales), can be justified by stocks.
In the soft drink industry, 5.7% fall in September compared to the previous year, according to the Sicobe.