Orange production may fall 17% in 2013

The number is still 30% below the record of 428 million boxes of 2011/12. In ten previous crops, producers of São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro (that concentrate the world's largest historical Park) reaped an average of 338.9 million boxes annually.
Orchards suffered from hot and dry weather during flowering in recent months. On the evaluation of Margarete Boteon, researcher of citrus area of the Center for advanced studies in applied economics (Cepea), the fall of investment in crops, reflecting the decapitalization of the producer may be a factor even more relevant. "There is a high number of abandonment of orchards, then the cultivated area should be reduced by 2013". Margarete says that there's a feeling "unanimous" on the market that the next harvest will be smaller, but considering that it is too early to speak in numbers, as the harvest begins in May.
"If we even just 300 million boxes and we take into account that a portion of juice inventory will be retained until the end of the year, it is possible that we have some relief in the bad scenario. Still, prices would need to react much to the citrus return to invest in culture, "says Margarete.
In 2011, the Government "held" the country's juice stocks, with the condition that the industries to buy more orange. At the time, stocks were low, which provoked a reaction in drink prices. The expectation was for a sharp drop in the next crop (the orchards are "tired" after a bumper crop), but the production surprised and the Government began to finance the retention of stocks, which resulted in an even greater accumulation in the offer-of 662 thousand tonnes stored, 311 thousand are retained by the Government via Special Credit Line (LEC).
"The lower availability of Orange should bring a relief to the system. We will process shortly and we'll have juice to spawn ", says Christian Lohbauer, President of the National Association of Manufacturers of Citrus juices (CitrusBR), an organization that represents the major industries of juice-Citrovita, Cutrale and Citrosuco/Louis Dreyfus.
The production is also declining in Florida (second largest Orange producer in the world), which presents problems with the climate and the high incidence of pests. In December, the United States Department of agriculture (USDA) downgraded in 5.2% forecast for the 2012/13 season, 146 million boxes. Analysts interviewed by Bloomberg are betting on a further reduction of estimation, in Friday's report, to 145.16 million boxes.
However, the consumption figures also are not favourable. Consultancy Nielsen data show that in the four weeks ended on December 22, 2012, total sales of orange juice in the u.s. dropped by 4.3 percent in volume and 3.4% in revenue, over the same range of 2011. On average, world consumption has retreated 1.5 percent per year. The competition with other types of drink has collaborated to pull down the buying interest by juice