sexta-feira, 30 de agosto, 2013

Sales of new cars have come into route of fall

Sales of new cars in Brazil they presented growth since the beginning of the year and, according to estimates from analysts, walk to close August with drop of 2% in cumulative values since January.
Preliminary data of the car plates issued and light utility vehicles show that the sector has lost all the "fat" accumulated until may, when sales rose nearly 9% (see table beside). Sources with access to the numbers indicate that the sector's growth is already null in relation to last year's result.
Until Tuesday, sales amounted to 2.29 million in accumulated 2013, matching the volume of the same period in 2012. But the trend is that the market will accent the fall, ending August with a difference of approximately 50 thousand cars less than the first eight months of last year.
The deceleration was anticipated with the strengthening of the basis for comparison, since August of 2012 was the best sales month in the history of Brazilian auto industry, with more than 405 million licensed cars.
That month, consumers flocked to dealerships to take advantage of what could be the last chance to take advantage of the discounts in the tax on industrialized products (IPI) that came to zero the rate of popular cars. In the end, the Government extended the benefit until December, removing partially the discounts in January.
Analysts, however, say that the recent performance of the market puts at risk projections pointing to a new sales record this year. Some of them, despite a long-awaited resumption of growth in September, assess that the industry won't be able to stay in positive ground until December. According to the experts, the weak economic activity and the fall in consumer confidence will follow the market.
To repeat the performance record of 2012-of 3.63 million cars got their plates-the market, from now on, will have to move an average of sales exceeding 323 thousand units per month, says Raphael Gallant, Oikonomia consulting. In 2013, that mark was surpassed in July when 323.9 million cars were sold. For Galante, most likely a fall of 2% this year.
Just like last month, the market kept in August sales pace around the 14 thousand cars a day, but the calendar, this time, is commercially disadvantageous, with a working day of sale unless both in comparison with July as compared to the same period in 2012. The expectation of analysts is that the month ends with sales in the range of 307 000 310 thousand cars, with fall around 4% to 5% in comparison with July and from 23% to 24% over the same period last year. Until Tuesday, 260.8 thousand cars had already been got their plates in the country.
Next Thursday, the Anfavea, an organization that represents automakers installed in Brazil, announces consolidated results of August and await for the occasion a review, probably down, estimates that point to a growth of 3.5% to 4.5% of sales this year, including trucks and buses. Before that, earlier in the week, the Fenabrave discloses how were sales in August.
"At the beginning of the year, had a better expectation. But I still hope an increase around 1 percent this year, "says Julian Semple, consultant of Carcon Automotive. Stephan already Keese, a partner at Roland Berger consultancy, says that sales must close in 2013 level "very similar" to last year.
"The IPI reduction no longer has the same impact on a weaker economy and slumping consumer confidence," said the analyst.
According to a partner at Roland Berger, the rebates and incentives granted on sales of cars reached an unsustainable level, which will force the sector to reduce sales efforts. For Keese, the increase in stocks of vehicles indicates that automakers already are less willing to grant high discounts to close sales.
The volume of vehicles stopped in the courtyards of the industry and of the dealers left a whirl equivalent to 33 days of sale in April for 39 days in June. The following month, the automakers have reduced the pace of production, taking stocks to 35 days. In total, thousand were stocked vehicles 395.9 at the end of last month, with the majority-297.9 thousand units-in the courtyards resales.
Valor Econômico - 29/08/2013
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