Industry confidence registers lower level since October 2018, FGV says

The trust of the industry has recorded the lowest level since October 2018, pointed out on Monday (29) The Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). The industry Confidence Index (ICI) fell 0.9 point between June and July, to 94.8 points. In quarterly moving averages, the index declined for the fourth consecutive month, this time at 1 point. According to the survey, confidence declined in 11 of the 19 industrial segments surveyed in July. The current situation index (ISA) had a low of 2.2 points, for 94.4 points. The expectations index (IE), however, recorded a high of 0.5 point, to 95.3 points, the first increase since January. The worsening of the perception about the current situation of the business was the main factor that influenced the fall of the ISA in July. The share of companies that evaluate the current situation as good went from 19.6% to 11.9% of the total. The proportion of those who consider it bad increased from 21.1% to 22.7%. In relation to expectations, after accumulating four falls in a row, the indicator that measures the optimism of entrepreneurs with the evolution of the business environment in the following six months rose 3.3 points in July, reaching the same level of May last (98.4 points). The share of companies predicting improvement increased from 34.9% to 38.4%, while those who projected worsening declined from 13.2% to 10.3%. The level of utilization of installed Capacity (NUCI) in the sector advanced 0.5 percentage point between June and July, reaching 75.5%, same level as in October 2018. In quarterly moving averages, the NUCI advanced for the fourth consecutive time, at 0.4 point, to 75.3%. "After accelerating in the second quarter, when gains were recorded both in the current situation index and in the capacity utilization level, the industry starts the third quarter with dubious signals. Despite the elevation of Nuci in July, there was a new accumulation of inventories and worsening of perception on demand. The good news was the first high of the index of expectations since January, for now limited to the item that targets the horizon of six months. In the following three-month questions, the trend continues to decline, "says Aloisio Campelo Jr., Superintendent of public statistics at FGV, in a commentary on the report. The survey collected information from 1,142 companies between July 1st and 24th.